While year-over-year declines will continue until the first quarter of 2010, the worst is behind us, and truck production rates will grow starting in the third quarter

, according to ACT Research.

In its recent North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT says heavy-duty and medium-duty truck production rates have reached a bottom, and will start to rebound. Heavy-duty production was at 25,000 for the second quarter, down 57 percent from the year-ago period. Medium-duty production was down 53 percent to 22,000 in the second quarter, and will rise at a slower rate than heavy-duty, due to continued softness in the construction industry.

"We believe the economy emerged from recession in the third quarter and expect gradual strengthening through 2010," said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT Research. "However, growth is likely to be slower than in a traditional recovery as consumers and financial institutions pare debt; baby-boomers increase their savings; government stimulus slows; and longer-term, higher taxes, inflation or both impact consumption and investment."

ACT publishes commercial vehicle industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market.

More info: www.actresearch.net.