Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Analysis: Freight Rate Thaw May Be in the Works

Data suggests that freight rates for truckload linehaul and intermodal movements may finally be headed higher, after being frozen in lower territory the last couple of years, says Business Contributing Editor Evan Lockridge in his February Hotline column.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
Read Evan's Posts
February 9, 2017
Analysis: Freight Rate Thaw May Be in the Works

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index shows while freight rates weren’t as good last year as they were in 2015, they were mostly better than in 2014 and appear to be heading higher this year. Source: Cass Information Systems Inc., and Avondale Partners

3 min to read


The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index shows while freight rates weren’t as good last year as they were in 2015, they were mostly better than in 2014 and appear to be heading higher this year. Source: Cass Information Systems Inc., and Avondale Partners

There are real hopes that freight rates for truckload linehaul and intermodal movements may finally be headed higher, after being frozen in lower territory the last couple of years.

The most recent Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which tracks monthly changes in linehaul rates, fell 0.9% in December, marking 10 straight monthly declines. But analysts at the investment firm Avondale Partners said there is cause for optimism.

Ad Loading...

That’s because the December reading improved 2.6% compared to the month before. That marked the index’s biggest month-over-month gain of 2016 and its highest reading since December 2015.

“The current strength being reported in spot rates is leading us to believe that our current -3% to 1% truckload pricing forecast may need to be improved or moved to a slightly more positive outlook,” Avondale said.

The intermodal sector, which suffered much of last year and the year before, at least compared to 2014, is expected to see some improvements as well. The Cass Intermodal Price Index, which measures changes in total intermodal per-mile costs (including fuel), increased 1.5% in December compared to a year earlier. That’s after rising 0.3% and 0.4% in November and October, respectively, while posting a 2.8% December hike from November. December marked the third consecutive year-over-year gain after 21 straight months of declines.

The good news is Avondale expects intermodal pricing to improve year-over-year until late into 2017. The bad news is pricing isn’t expected to reach the high levels of three years earlier.

On top of this, the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly expenditures for shipments across multiple modes, was down far less in December compared to much larger declines earlier in the year. That was due to steady increase in fuel prices over the last six months and what Avondale Senior Transportation Analyst Donald Broughton said are “some improvements in the pricing power of truckers and intermodal shippers.”

Ad Loading...

“If the winter of the overall freight recession we’ve been in for more than a year and a half in the U.S. is not yet over, it is certainly showing promising signs of thawing,” said Broughton.

Broughton and Avondale are not alone in their optimism. American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello late last month said he sees “positive signs for truck tonnage.” Although the group reported truck tonnage in December was down 6.2% from the month before, it was up 2.5% for all of last year.

Costello attributed the gain to “continued spending by consumers, larger wage gains, and solid home construction. Factory output will continue to be soft, but it should be better this year than last year. And most importantly, the supply chain continues to make progress reducing bloated inventories, which will help truck volumes going forward.”

Sounding a similar note is DAT Analyst Mark Montague. He has gone so far to say that an 18-month downturn in freight, triggered by the collapse of worldwide oil prices at the end of 2014, is officially over.

While the news indicates that at least initially 2017 won’t be as good as a couple of years earlier, the year still looks promising for trucking and the economy. And that certainly beats the chill in the air the industry felt last year.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

More Fleet Management

2026 Mack Anthem rolls off the assembly line
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 3, 2026

Mack Financial Services Launches Physical Damage Insurance For All Makes

Mack Financial Services has introduced the Rolling Asset Program, offering physical damage insurance for all makes and models within a customer's fleet.

Read More →
Illustration of phishing email with trucks in background
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 3, 2026

New Phishing Scheme Targets Motor Carriers, FMCSA Warns

Beware of a new phishing scheme targeting motor carriers. Scammers are sending emails posing as FMCSA or DOT officials to steal data.

Read More →
Daimler-Class8 partnership.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 2, 2026

DTNA Partners with Class8 to Expand Digital Services for Freightliner Owner-Operators

A new partnership brings free wireless ELD service plus load optimization and dispatch planning tools to fourth- and fifth-generation Freightliner Cascadia customers, with broader model availability planned through 2026.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Reducing Fleet Downtime with Advanced Diagnostics

This white paper examines how advanced commercial vehicle diagnostics can significantly reduce fleet downtime as heavy duty vehicles become more complex. It shows how Autel’s CV diagnostic tools enable in-house troubleshooting, preventive maintenance, and faster repairs, helping fleets cut emissions-related downtime, reduce dealer dependence, and improve overall vehicle uptime and operating costs.

Read More →
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Stop Watching Footage, Start Driving Results

6 intelligent dashcam tactics to improve safety and boost ROI

Read More →
M&A illustration with Werner and FirstFleet logos
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 29, 2026

Werner Expands Dedicated Fleet Nearly 50% With FirstFleet Acquisition

The $283 million acquisition of FirstFleet makes Werner the fifth-largest dedicated carrier and pushes more than half of its revenue into contract freight.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Bobit Business Media B2X Rewards.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseJanuary 29, 2026

Bobit Business Media Launches B2X Rewards Engagement Program

B2X Rewards is a new, gamified rewards program aimed at driving deeper engagement across BBM’s digital platforms, newsletters, events, and TheFleetSource.com.

Read More →
Trucking Trends series graphic
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 29, 2026

AI is Reshaping Trucking in 2026, from the Back Office to the Shop

Trucking’s biggest technology shifts in 2026 have one thing in common: artificial intelligence.

Read More →
Column graphic illustration with Deborah Lockridge head shot and a small fleet truck in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 27, 2026

Why Small Trucking Fleets Are Still Standing [Commentary]

Why discipline, relationships, and focus have mattered more than size for smaller trucking fleets during the freight recession.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 23, 2026

Cargo Theft Is Surging. A Bill in Congress Could Help. [Video]

Cargo theft losses hit $725 million last year. In this HDT Talks Trucking Short Take video, Scott Cornell explains how a bill moving in Congress could bring federal tracking, enforcement, and prosecutions to help address the problem.

Read More →