Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Analysis: Don't Mind the Bumps, Numbers Still Look Promising for 2017

It seems just as soon as one report comes out saying there are indications the economy (and trucking) continues to get better, another follows that seems to point the other way, says business contributing editor Evan Lockridge in his July column.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
July 1, 2017
Analysis: Don't Mind the Bumps, Numbers Still Look Promising for 2017

The Cass Freight Index showed positive numbers in April for the fourth straight month, indicating a possible end to the “freight recession.” Source: Cass Information Systems

3 min to read


The Cass Freight Index showed positive numbers in April for the fourth straight month, indicating a possible end to the “freight recession.” Source: Cass Information Systems

It seems just as soon as one report comes out saying there are indications the economy (and trucking) continues to get better, another follows that seems to point the other way.

Ad Loading...

The Cass Freight Index, which measures overall freight volumes and expenditures, showed both measures were positive in April for the fourth straight month. The writer of the report, Donald Broughton of the economic and equity research firm Broughton Capital, pointed out the “data is suggesting that the consumer is finally starting to spend a little.” The numbers, he said, indicated the “overall freight recession” that began in 2015 appears to be over, while freight seems to be gaining momentum in most segments and the overall economy “continues to get slightly better.”

But not everyone in trucking is feeling the positive effects equally.

Ad Loading...

For instance, consumers aren’t spending at brick and mortar retailers. Just look at how many have closed this year or have reported lower sales. While parcel volumes associated with e-commerce continue to show outstanding rates of growth, according to Broughton, with both FedEx and UPS reporting strong U.S. domestic volumes, truckload volume isn’t showing such growth.

Fewer truckload shipments are going to retailers and more is coming from distribution centers. Broughton noted figures from February, the most recent month available, show dry van loads fell on a year-over-year basis five out of the last eight months.

Then there’s the American Trucking Associations For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, which in April fell from the month before for the third straight month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment fell 7.8% in April from March.

One likely reason, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello pointed out, is that “housing starts fell substantially in April…and residential construction generates heavier truck freight.”

There are signs that these are temporary glitches.

Ad Loading...

Truckload linehaul rates may finally be ready to turn around for the better following recent declines. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index in April, while virtually unchanged from the month before, increased from April 2016, hitting its highest level since January and ending 13 straight months of year-over-year drops.

Add to this spot truckload rates, as measured by the DAT North American Freight Index, while down 2.5% in April from March, were above levels from the same month the previous two years. Freight volume was up 60% when compared to April 2016.

This bump in the spot market, according to Broughton, could lead to contract pricing rates being back in positive territory by the end of the year. His truckload linehaul pricing forecast for 2017 remains in a range of between a 1% decline to a 2% improvement.

As for housing starts, just call the April decline a pause. For the lion’s share of the market, single-family home starts, the outlook remains strong, especially with low unemployment in the U.S.

While this mixture of reports can be confusing, there is little expectation that the economy or trucking will hit a wall anytime soon. The ride, like any on the open highway, will continue to face both bumps and smooth spots.

Ad Loading...

Evan Lockridge covers trucking business and economic news for HDT, both in his monthly column in HDT's Hotline section and on Truckinginfo.com. A freelance writer, he has been covering the trucking industry in print, online, and on the air since 1991.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

More Fleet Management

Photos of three men and two women with HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026 logo
Fleet ManagementCover Storyby Deborah LockridgeAugust 13, 2026

How HDT’s 2026 Truck Fleet Innovators Are Rethinking Fleet Operations

Meet five trucking leaders who are challenging assumptions, solving operational problems, and putting innovative ideas to work.

Read More →
Graph showing how contract rates and spot rates converged in July
Fleet Managementby StaffAugust 12, 2026

Tight Trucking Capacity Pushes Rates Higher Even as Freight Volumes Fall

“Spot rates moving ahead of contract rates have historically signaled a tightening market, but we haven’t seen a capacity-driven market quite like this one,” said DAT's Dean Croke.

Read More →
Line graph showing container import volumes
Fleet Managementby StaffAugust 7, 2026

Import Cargo’s Early Peak Season is Winding Down

There was an early start to peak season this year at the nation's gateway ports, as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other supply chain uncertainties,

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Blue infographic with graphs illustrating cargo theft trends in the second quarter of 2026
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 6, 2026

Fewer Cargo Thefts, Bigger Losses: Criminals Target Higher-Value Loads

CargoNet says organized theft rings are stealing fewer shipments but choosing more valuable freight, including metals and technology, resulting in record losses.

Read More →
Illustration of a chalkboard with a hand drawing an arrow curving away from a partially erased straight arrow with the words "Embracing Change," the Heavy Duty Trucking Logo and the "cover feature" graphic.
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 1, 2026

How Innovative Trucking Leaders Turn Change Into an Advantage

As the pace of change accelerates in trucking, the fleets that adapt best have more than the latest technology. They have cultures that embrace improvement.

Read More →
Illustration of past due invoices with red X on top with background of a truck at a loading dock
Fleet ManagementJuly 27, 2026

Freight Broker Bonds Just Got Harder to Get. Here's What That Means for Your Fleet.

When it gets harder for a freight broker to prove they are financially sound, the ones who cannot clear that bar get pushed out of the market. And those are exactly the brokers who used to leave motor carriers holding the bag.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Photo of cable bridge crossing Detroit River
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 23, 2026

Long-Awaited Canadian Border Bridge to Open in Detroit

For trucking, the bridge opening should offer immediate improvements in efficiency and reliability, with new customs facilities, expanded inspection capacity, and direct freeway-to-freeway connections.

Read More →
Blue International heavy-duty truck with Aurora driverless truck software coming head-on on an interstate highway
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJuly 22, 2026

Aurora Rolls Out Next Generation of Driverless Trucks for Commercial Freight

Aurora's latest autonomous trucks it's rolling out with International feature lower-cost hardware designed for a million miles as the company expands commercial driverless freight operations across the U.S. Sun Belt.

Read More →
American Trucking Associations for-hire tonnage graph
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 21, 2026

Freight Tonnage Down, Rates up, as Lower Capacity Powers Trucking Recovery

The recovery from the freight recession continues to be driven by reduction in capacity rather than by increased demand.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Cyberstop column header depicting images of ChatGPT prompt on a smartphone and shadowy hooded figure
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensJuly 17, 2026

Think Your Trucking Fleet Isn't Using Much AI? Think Again

Shadow AI — the use of unauthorized artificial intelligence tools at work — is becoming increasingly common, putting sensitive company data at risk. Learn how trucking fleets can protect sensitive data while embracing AI.

Read More →