A new study published last month shows that groups calling for increased use of rail as a way to protect the environment are off track.

The study, which was conducted for the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), found that by 2020, due to the large expected reduction in emission rates for trucks, total trade-related emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx) and carcinogenic particulate matter will decline or remain constant compared to current levels, despite trade volumes that are expected to double or triple.
Truck emissions along U.S.-Canadian corridors are predicted to drop to about one-tenth their current level. Lower emission rates are also expected for railway locomotives, but rates are not expected to decline as rapidly as truck emissions because standards will not be as strict and because vehicle turnover is slower. Emissions from locomotive engines and fuels are not regulated in Canada.
Rail corridors with higher trade growth, like Toronto-Detroit, Vancouver-Seattle and Winnipeg-Fargo, are predicted to see an increase of 50 to 100 percent by 2020. In all corridors, because of the decline in truck emissions, rail will contribute a much larger share of trade-related NOx and particulate emissions.
Rail and trucking now contribute roughly equal amounts of dangerous emissions, but a shift to rail would increase NOx and particulates emissions in most corridors, according to the study.
David Bradley, of the Canadian Trucking Alliance, calls the idea that environmental problems will be solved by shifting freight from truck to rail “so wrong.” He cites strict regulation of truck engine and fuel standards, combined with a faster turnover of old equipment, as the key reasons why "trucks have gone from the belchers of black smoke of yesteryear, to the green machines of today."
Canadian National railroad has said that just a 1% market share gain from trucks would generate additional rail revenue of $300 million in Canada and $3 billion in the United States.