Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Commentary: What a Car-Trends Survey Tells Us About Future Truck Tech

74% believe that mixing autonomous and non-autonomous traffic will lead to severe safety issues.

by Rolf Lockwood
January 15, 2019
Commentary: What a Car-Trends Survey Tells Us About Future Truck Tech

Most of us probably believe that the onset of autonomous vehicles is inevitable, cars and trucks alike. But will go smoothly?

Photo via Volvo Group

3 min to read


Most of us probably believe that the onset of autonomous vehicles is inevitable, cars and trucks alike. But does anyone think it will go smoothly? I sure don’t.

Ad Loading...

For the most part we’re seeing very capable technology, and it will only get better. But I believe the mixing of autonomous vehicles and those piloted by real people is fraught with risk. The reason is simple: People are stupid. Their driving skills are nearly non-existent. They’re also unpredictable. They sneeze, they get distracted by billboards, they can’t resist texting – you name it, they do it. So they often lose control, and I would challenge even the most sensor-laden autonomous truck to deal with all the resulting surprises.

So here’s an idea that comes out of a study by KPMG that surveyed car-maker executives and car-buying consumers as to the trends they see.

Ad Loading...

Of the executives, 74% believe that mixing autonomous and non-autonomous traffic will lead to severe safety issues. Mixed traffic is not possible, they conclude, saying it’s unlikely that fully autonomous vehicles and human drivers will use the same roads. As a result, they predict, we’ll see the trend of separation instead of integration, and with it the implementation of new road concepts and traffic systems over the next 10 years.

But that timeline doesn’t quite square with another conclusion about our future: 94% of those executives believe that a fully working and effective driving policy and regulations for autonomous vehicles will be set up no later than 2040. I should think that, if we’re fooling with new road and traffic strategies that could start to be seen within a decade, we’ll want to have those other policies well in hand at more or less the same time.

Does any of that square with your own thinking? I’d love to hear what you think.

The KPMG report is the giant consulting firm’s 19th annual Global Automotive Executive Survey by its Automotive Institute. Bearing in mind that the survey focused on the automotive world, we’re not dealing with an exact mirror of what’s going on with commercial vehicles. Still, there are significant points of overlap.

For instance, the report has confirmed my thinking about power sources of the near future.

Ad Loading...

I’ve written a few times this year that my money is on the hydrogen fuel cell as the eventual power source of the future, the one that will seize the biggest chunk of the internal combustion engine’s territory, and maybe not so long into the future.

Executives in the survey project this kind of split by 2040: battery electric vehicles (26%), fuel cell electric vehicles (25%), internal combustion engines (25%), and hybrids (24%). That’s about cars, remember. I think you can almost discount hybrids in our world.

Interestingly, KPMG respondents said: “Fuel-cell electric vehicles have replaced battery electric vehicles as this year’s No. 1 key trend until 2025.”

And this next one is especially interesting: Of the executives surveyed, 55% believe that pure battery-electric vehicles will fail due to the challenge of setting up the required infrastructure.

Thought-provoking, I’d say.

Ad Loading...

And with that, I wish you a Happy New Year. May all your miles be smooth and all your challenges small.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

More Safety & Compliance

CVSA inspector photo in background with CVSA logo superimposed on top
Maintenanceby News/Media ReleaseJuly 31, 2026

Brake Safety Week to Focus on Drums and Rotors

Commercial vehicle inspectors will be focusing on brakes during CVSA's Brake Safety Week, August 23-29.

Read More →
American flag in background with photos of military truck and Freedom Haulers ad graphic
Driversby Deborah LockridgeJuly 30, 2026

Trump Administration Looks to Put More Veterans Behind the Wheel

The Freedom Haulers program pulls together existing and expanded programs at several federal agencies to recruit veterans to drive commercial heavy-duty trucks and cut the red tape for them to get a CDL, training, and employment.

Read More →
Graphic illustrating court verdicts with money and a cracked windshield with a gavel in the background

$604 Million Verdict Tests Broker Liability After Supreme Court Ruling

C.H. Robinson plans to appeal after a Texas jury found it bore the largest share of responsibility for a fatal 2021 crash, in a case that follows the Supreme Court's Montgomery decision allowing negligent hiring claims against freight brokers.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Line of gray semi trucks with Fraley & Schilling logo
Safety & ComplianceJuly 15, 2026

How Fraley & Schilling Improved Logbook Compliance by Over 50%

Fraley & Schilling needed a way to close a compliance workflow gap in its ELD system without adding more work from driver training, reminders, and back-office follow-ups. It found the answer in a custom driver app.

Read More →
Man standing beside tractor-trailer in sepia tone with the words "Farewell CDL" superimposed on top
Driversby Jack RobertsJuly 1, 2026

Farewell, CDL: Why I'm Giving Up My Commercial Driver's License

After more than 20 years as a CDL holder, HDT Executive Editor Jack Roberts is letting his commercial license expire. Not because he wants to — but because trucking's nuclear verdict crisis has made the risks of public-road test drives too great for editors, manufacturers, and everyone involved.

Read More →
thermo king heavy duty trucking
Safety & ComplianceJuly 1, 2026

Enhance Fleet Performance with High-Efficiency Auxiliary Power Units

Drive sustainable cost savings while increasing driver comfort during short- and long-haul logistics operations.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Maintenanceby Deborah LockridgeJune 23, 2026

Wabash Trailers Recalled for Improperly Installed Underride Guards

More than 900 Wabash dry van trailers may not comply with the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard for rear impact guards.

Read More →
YouTube thumbnail with photo of K&B's Lance Evans with truck in the background and the words, Trucking's AI Wake-Up Call

Why K&B Trucking Is Embracing AI and Driver Safety Technology

Crunching data and embracing artificial intelligence are key in K&B Trucking's safety efforts, says the company's safety director.

Read More →
The Cyber Stop header showing an enforcement officer talking to a truck driver and a screen shot of the FMCSA's revoked ELDs list
Safety & Complianceby Ben WilkensJune 19, 2026

The Hidden Problem Behind FMCSA's ELD Revocations

NMFTA researchers say dozens of registered ELDs may be built on the same software platforms, allowing compliance and security concerns to persist even after individual devices are removed from the market.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration of inside truck cab with dashcam on window, definition of research, and ATRI logo

ATRI Wants Motor Carriers for Driver-Facing Camera Study

In this new study, the American Transportation Research Institute will explore how driver-facing cameras can impact safety and operational metrics in trucking fleets.

Read More →