Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Commentary: What a Car-Trends Survey Tells Us About Future Truck Tech

74% believe that mixing autonomous and non-autonomous traffic will lead to severe safety issues.

by Rolf Lockwood
January 15, 2019
Commentary: What a Car-Trends Survey Tells Us About Future Truck Tech

Most of us probably believe that the onset of autonomous vehicles is inevitable, cars and trucks alike. But will go smoothly?

Photo via Volvo Group

3 min to read


Most of us probably believe that the onset of autonomous vehicles is inevitable, cars and trucks alike. But does anyone think it will go smoothly? I sure don’t.

For the most part we’re seeing very capable technology, and it will only get better. But I believe the mixing of autonomous vehicles and those piloted by real people is fraught with risk. The reason is simple: People are stupid. Their driving skills are nearly non-existent. They’re also unpredictable. They sneeze, they get distracted by billboards, they can’t resist texting – you name it, they do it. So they often lose control, and I would challenge even the most sensor-laden autonomous truck to deal with all the resulting surprises.

Ad Loading...

So here’s an idea that comes out of a study by KPMG that surveyed car-maker executives and car-buying consumers as to the trends they see.

Of the executives, 74% believe that mixing autonomous and non-autonomous traffic will lead to severe safety issues. Mixed traffic is not possible, they conclude, saying it’s unlikely that fully autonomous vehicles and human drivers will use the same roads. As a result, they predict, we’ll see the trend of separation instead of integration, and with it the implementation of new road concepts and traffic systems over the next 10 years.

But that timeline doesn’t quite square with another conclusion about our future: 94% of those executives believe that a fully working and effective driving policy and regulations for autonomous vehicles will be set up no later than 2040. I should think that, if we’re fooling with new road and traffic strategies that could start to be seen within a decade, we’ll want to have those other policies well in hand at more or less the same time.

Does any of that square with your own thinking? I’d love to hear what you think.

The KPMG report is the giant consulting firm’s 19th annual Global Automotive Executive Survey by its Automotive Institute. Bearing in mind that the survey focused on the automotive world, we’re not dealing with an exact mirror of what’s going on with commercial vehicles. Still, there are significant points of overlap.

Ad Loading...

For instance, the report has confirmed my thinking about power sources of the near future.

I’ve written a few times this year that my money is on the hydrogen fuel cell as the eventual power source of the future, the one that will seize the biggest chunk of the internal combustion engine’s territory, and maybe not so long into the future.

Executives in the survey project this kind of split by 2040: battery electric vehicles (26%), fuel cell electric vehicles (25%), internal combustion engines (25%), and hybrids (24%). That’s about cars, remember. I think you can almost discount hybrids in our world.

Interestingly, KPMG respondents said: “Fuel-cell electric vehicles have replaced battery electric vehicles as this year’s No. 1 key trend until 2025.”

And this next one is especially interesting: Of the executives surveyed, 55% believe that pure battery-electric vehicles will fail due to the challenge of setting up the required infrastructure.

Ad Loading...

Thought-provoking, I’d say.

And with that, I wish you a Happy New Year. May all your miles be smooth and all your challenges small.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

More Safety & Compliance

 Illustration showing a driver behind the wheel, DOT offices, and examples of problematic non domiciled CDL
Driversby Deborah LockridgeFebruary 12, 2026

FMCSA Locks in Non-Domiciled CDL Restrictions

After a legal pause last fall, FMCSA has finalized its rule limiting non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses. The agency says the change closes a safety gap, and its revised economic analysis suggests workforce effects will be more gradual than first thought.

Read More →
Samsara Coach driver coaching system.
Safety & Complianceby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 11, 2026

Samsara Taps Nascar Champ Jesse Love as its First Driver Coaching Avatar

A new AI-powered coaching platform from Samsara uses real-time voice agents and digital avatars to strengthen driver safety and scale fleet training.

Read More →
Photo of GO Focus Pro dashcam
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 11, 2026

Geotab Launches AI-Powered GO Focus Pro Dash Cam With 360-Degree Visibility

Geotab launches GO Focus Pro, an AI-powered 360-degree dash cam designed to reduce collisions, prevent fraud, and protect fleets from nuclear verdict risk.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Commercial vehicle enforcement scenes
Safety & Complianceby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 9, 2026

Operation SafeDrive Nets 704 Drivers, 1,231 Vehicles Out of Service

A high-visibility enforcement effort conducted January 13–15 removed hundreds of unqualified drivers and unsafe commercial vehicles from major freight corridors nationwide.

Read More →
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Stop Watching Footage, Start Driving Results

6 intelligent dashcam tactics to improve safety and boost ROI

Read More →
Series graphic for 2025-2026 trucking trends
Safety & Complianceby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 28, 2026

6 Regulatory Changes for Trucking to Watch in 2026

After a year of what safety and compliance expert Brandon Wiseman calls “regulatory turbulence,” what should trucking companies be keeping an eye on in 2026 when it comes to federal safety regulations?

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Truck driver behind wheel with superimposed mobile driver assessment from Smith System
Safety & Complianceby News/Media ReleaseJanuary 27, 2026

Smith System Adds Digital Trainer Center Platform

A new Digital Trainer platform digitizes behind-the-wheel assessments, generates Smith5Keys driver scorecards, and connects safety training to ongoing driver risk management.

Read More →
Safety & Complianceby StaffJanuary 26, 2026

Are You Using One of These Revoked ELDs?

Within a two-week period, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration removed eight ELDs from the list of registered electronic logging devices, but has since reinstated two of them.

Read More →
Safety & Complianceby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 22, 2026

What FMCSA’s New Enforcement Push Means for Fleets in 2026 [Video]

Last year was one of regulatory turbulence for trucking companies and truck drivers. Trucking attorney Brandon Wiseman breaks down the top DOT changes and what fleets should be aware of heading into 2026.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
SponsoredJanuary 19, 2026

3 New Ways Fleet Software Pays: ROI opportunities for modern fleet managers

Safety, uptime, and insurance costs directly impact profitability. This eBook looks at how fleet software is evolving to deliver real ROI through proactive maintenance, AI-powered video telematics, and real-time driver coaching. Learn how fleets are reducing crashes, defending claims, and using integrated data to make smarter operational decisions.

Read More →