It will likely take until late next year before the global express market escapes the economic doldrums, according to new research by independent market analyst Datamonitor.
While there are some hopeful signs that the global recession is bottoming out and that the freight market is recovering, many freight markets around the world are still suffering from the losses from the past year, while some economies are arriving late to the recession, says the firm.
Major players in the industry, including DHL, TNT, UPS and FedEx, are still reporting weak performance in the second quarter, despite the market bottoming out, according to Datamonitor.
Datamonitor says before freight volumes and revenues can pick back up in the global express market, we must see major improvements in consumer confidence, industrial output and international trade volumes.
"Given what happened to volumes at the end of 2008, seemingly positive results at the end of this year should not be misinterpreted as signs of recovery too early, as it will take the global express industry at least until the end of 2010 to return to its former levels from before the onset of the economic downturn," said Erik Van Baaren, Datamonitor logistics and express senior analyst.
The London-based company points out that there are some signs of an economic recovery in the freight sector, including improvements in Germany, France, Japan, Hong Kong, the U.S. and China.
However, the company attributes the growth to economic stimulus funding, which will not last long. In addition, volumes are still weak and have to come up from such low levels. The industry will have to experience major growth in volumes in order to offset the significant declines.
"Year-to-date volumes are still down 19.6 percent, however, signaling that there is a long road to recovery still," Van Baaren said. "Ultimately, it seems small glimmers of hope in economic performance are making little impact on the volumes and revenues of the logistics and express industry so far."
The company also indicates that some countries are just starting to enter the recession, such as Russia, which was recently hit by a slump in world demand and weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports.
More info: www.datamonitor.com
While there are some hopeful signs that the global recession is bottoming out and that the freight market is recovering, many freight markets around the world are still suffering from the losses from the past year, while some economies are arriving late to the recession, says the firm.
Major players in the industry, including DHL, TNT, UPS and FedEx, are still reporting weak performance in the second quarter, despite the market bottoming out, according to Datamonitor.
Datamonitor says before freight volumes and revenues can pick back up in the global express market, we must see major improvements in consumer confidence, industrial output and international trade volumes.
"Given what happened to volumes at the end of 2008, seemingly positive results at the end of this year should not be misinterpreted as signs of recovery too early, as it will take the global express industry at least until the end of 2010 to return to its former levels from before the onset of the economic downturn," said Erik Van Baaren, Datamonitor logistics and express senior analyst.
The London-based company points out that there are some signs of an economic recovery in the freight sector, including improvements in Germany, France, Japan, Hong Kong, the U.S. and China.
However, the company attributes the growth to economic stimulus funding, which will not last long. In addition, volumes are still weak and have to come up from such low levels. The industry will have to experience major growth in volumes in order to offset the significant declines.
"Year-to-date volumes are still down 19.6 percent, however, signaling that there is a long road to recovery still," Van Baaren said. "Ultimately, it seems small glimmers of hope in economic performance are making little impact on the volumes and revenues of the logistics and express industry so far."
The company also indicates that some countries are just starting to enter the recession, such as Russia, which was recently hit by a slump in world demand and weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports.
More info: www.datamonitor.com
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