American Trucking Associations released the latest edition of U.S. Freight Forecast to 2024, which projects an overall increase in freight volumes for all modes of more than 20% and an increase in the amount of that freight moved by trucks.
The forecast, a product of collaboration between ATA, IHS Global Insight and Martin Labbe Associates, lays out the current state of the freight economy where trucking strengthens its position as the leading mode of transportation.
“The trucking industry continues to dominate the freight transportation industry in terms of both tonnage and revenue,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, noting that forecast projects trucking’s share of tonnage will rise to 70.8% by 2024 from 68.5% in 2012.
Over that same period, the forecast calculates:
- Overall freight revenue will grow by 63.6% to $1.3 trillion annually in 2024 and trucking will see its share of those revenue rise to 81% from 80.7% in 2012.
- Truckload volumes will grow 3.2% through 2018 and 1.1% annually between 2019 and 2024. Less-than-truckload volume should grow 3.5% annually through 2018 and by 2.4% until 2024.
- Anemic growth for rail carloads of just 1.5% through 2018 and 0.4% from 2019 through 2024 contributing to a decline in market share to 14.2% from 14.8% in 2011.
- Intermodal rail will continue to be the fastest growing freight mode, growing an average of 5.1% a year until 2018 then slowing moderately to 4.8% annual through 2024.
- Other modes of transportation, including air freight, waterborne transportation and pipelines will see moderate volume and revenue growth.