Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Manufacturing Expanding, Leading Indicators Rise

One of the first looks at how the economy is doing in the New Year shows a further upturn in business conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector, but the overall rate of improvement eased further from last August’s peak.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
January 23, 2015
4 min to read


One of the first looks at how the economy is doing in the New Year shows a further upturn in business conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector, but the overall rate of improvement eased further from last August’s peak.

This was highlighted by a drop in the seasonally adjusted Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from 53.9 in December to 53.7 in January, published Friday by the financial information services provider Markit Economics. Although the headline index remained above the neutral 50 threshold, the latest reading was lowest in 12 months.

Ad Loading...

Slower new business growth was a key factor weighing on the overall performance of the U.S. manufacturing sector in January, according to the report. Volumes of new work have increased in each month since September 2009, but the latest upturn was the weakest for a year and slightly slower than the average seen during the current period of expansion.

Reports from survey respondents suggested that improving domestic economic conditions continued to boost new order levels, but overall export demand remained lackluster. Meanwhile, some manufacturers noted that reduced spending among clients operating in the oil and gas sector had weighed on new order volumes during January.

“Business conditions continued to improve among U.S. factories at the start of the year, though the rate of growth continued to cool from the scorching pace seen in the summer months,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit. “The slowdown is being led by a weakening inflow of new orders, but the good news is that demand remained strong enough to drive yet another month of robust job creation at factories. Producers are also benefitting from the recent oil price slide, which helped reduce overall input costs for the first time for two-and-a-half years.”

Ad Loading...

He said the ongoing growth of output and employment, signaled by the survey, suggest that the process of the Federal Reserve gradually raising interest rates could be underway by mid-year. However, Williamson noted lower manufacturing costs resulting from the recent oil price drop should drive inflation down further in coming months, keeping interest rates low for longer.

Leading Economic Indicators

Meantime, a wider look at how the economy is doing and where it’s headed in the next three to six months showed an improvement for December, according to the private research group The Conference Board.

Its Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.5% in December to 121.1, following a 0.4% gain in November and a 0.6% increase October.

“December’s gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “Still, a lack of growth in residential construction and average weekly hours in manufacturing remains a concern. Current economic conditions measured by the coincident indicators show employment and income gains are helping to keep the U.S. economy on a solid expansionary path despite some weakness in industrial production.”

Ad Loading...

Existing Home Sales

Finally, a third report economic reported showed existing-home sales bounced back in December and climbed above an annual pace of 5 million sales for the sixth time in seven months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in December from a downwardly-revised 4.92 million in November. Compared to a year ago, December sales were 3.5% higher. It also marks the third straight month they are above year-over-year levels.

For all of 2014, there were 4.93 million sales, a 3.1% drop from 2013 level of 5.09 million and the first decline since 2010. The national median existing-home price was $208,500, the highest since 2007 when it was $219,000, and a 5.8% increase from 2013’s $197,100.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales picked up in December to close a 2014 that got off to a sluggish start but showed encouraging signs of activity the second half of the year. “Home sales improved over the summer once inventory increased, prices moderated and economic growth accelerated,” he said. “Sales were measurably better in the second half, up 8% compared to the first six months of the year.”

Ad Loading...

December existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.9% from November but were 3.1% above a year ago, while in the Midwest, sales fell 3.5% from the month before and were 2.7% below December 2013. Existing-home sales in the South climbed 3.8% from the month before during December and were 7.4% higher than a year earlier, while sales in the West jumped 9.8% in December from November and 2.8% above a year ago.

More Fleet Management

A monitor with a bar graph with a person sitting next to it wearing a headset.
SponsoredSeptember 1, 2026

How Telematics Improves Visibility, Control, and Performance in Refrigerated Fleets

Explore how telematics help refrigerated fleets improve visibility, uptime, efficiency, compliance, and cargo protection across connected cold chain operations.

Read More →
Graphic with U.S. and Canadian flags over background illustration of an ink-stamp that says Tariffs.
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeAugust 24, 2026

What the U.S.-Canada Trade War Means for Trucking

Escalating U.S.-Canada tariffs could disrupt cross-border freight, reduce truck volumes, raise costs, and create new uncertainty for carriers on both sides of the border.

Read More →
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseAugust 24, 2026

What Are Trucking’s Top Concerns for 2026?

The American Transportation Research Institute wants to know what's worrying trucking fleet managers, drivers, and other stakeholders in its annual Industry Issues survey.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Four men in suits on the National Mall with giant video screen showing capitol building in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 24, 2026

American Trucking Associations Looks for a New Leader

ATA President and CEO Chris Spear abruptly left his job at the association on August 21, at a pivotal time for the trucking industry.

Read More →
The Cyber Stop column header with photo of a smiling driver in truck with a laptop and a wi-fi icon
Fleet ManagementAugust 21, 2026

Public Wi-Fi Cybersecurity Risks: How Truck Drivers and Fleets Can Protect Their Data

Public Wi-Fi can expose truck drivers and fleets to credential theft, malware, and other cyber threats. Here’s how to reduce the risk on the road.

Read More →
Woman in white blazer superimposed on background showing a row of Fraley & Schilling truck, plus the HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026 logo
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 19, 2026

For Nicky Cupp, Fleet Innovation Starts With Frustration

HDT Truck Fleet Innovator Nicky Cupp turns everyday pain points at Fraley & Schilling into opportunities for better technology and smarter processes.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Headshot of Adam Buttgenbach with a Pepsi-branded Tesla Semi in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 18, 2026

Adam Buttgenbach’s Approach to Electric Trucks: Start With Where They Fit

HDT Truck Fleet Innovator Adam Buttgenbach helped PepsiCo build one of North America’s largest EV fleets by focusing on where electric trucks make operational sense.

Read More →
Deen Albert in collared shirt superimposed on background showing a Grand Island Express blue tractor pulling a trailer, plus the HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026 logo
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 17, 2026

Deen Albert: Let Automation Do the Math, People Make the Decisions

HDT Truck Fleet Innovator Deen Albert makes sure people are still at the heart of operations at Grand Island Express, even while adopting artificial intelligence tools. AI-assisted dispatch helped boost revenue 25% with the same number of trucks.

Read More →
Illustration of computer screen with Trimble Arc Agent screen
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 14, 2026

Trimble’s New AI Agent Takes Aim at Fleet Back-Office Busywork

Arc Agent works across Trimble TMS products to automate repetitive tasks such as freight orders, maintenance, invoices, fuel costs and more.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Photos of three men and two women with HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026 logo
Fleet ManagementCover Storyby Deborah LockridgeAugust 13, 2026

How HDT’s 2026 Truck Fleet Innovators Are Rethinking Fleet Operations

Meet five trucking leaders who are challenging assumptions, solving operational problems, and putting innovative ideas to work.

Read More →