Updated Crash Risk Prediction Report Includes Age, Gender

The American Transportation Research Institute has released an update to its Crash Predictor Model, which statistically quantifies the likelihood of future crash involvement based on truck driving behaviors.

The most recent update now includes analyses on the impact of age and gender on crash probability. ATRI has also added in information on industry average crash costs across six distinct crash types and severity.

In the latest report, ATRI found that women truck drivers tended to be safer than male counterparts in every statistically significant safety behavior. Overall men were found to be 20% more likely to be involved in a crash then women. Part of ATRI’s age data showed that generally drivers older than 40 and younger than 85 were less likely to be involved in a crash, though there wasn’t a strong correlation between age and events that typically had the largest impact on future crash risk.

The two riskiest behaviors, meaning behaviors that most strongly increased the likelihood of a future incident, were having a previous reckless driving violation and having a previous failure to yield right of way violation. Prior crash involvement was also a major indicator, with a 74% increase in the likelihood of being in a future crash.

ATRI’s analysis draws on data form over 435,000 truck drivers collected over a two-year timeframe, uncovering nearly a dozen behaviors that raise a driver’s risk of being involved in a future truck crash by more than 50%. These include prior crashes, violations, and convictions.

A copy of the full report with a breakdown of all of the data is available from ATRI at TruckingResearch.org

Related: FMCSA Clarifies How to Request a Non-Preventable Crash Data Review