Photo: Evan Lockridge

Photo: Evan Lockridge

Retail sales in the U.S. rebounded in October due to broad-based gains, as consumers get ready to head into the Christmas shopping season, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report.

The increase of 0.3% from the month before is better than many analysts were expecting. It compares to a 0.3% drop in September.

So called “core sales,” which strip out volatile food, energy, auto and building material sales, showed an increase of 0.5% in October compared to September. Eleven of the 13 major sales categories reported an increase in October from the month before. Not surprisingly, sales of gasoline fell 1.5% for the month and 4% from a year earlier, due to falling prices, which some analysts believe is allowing consumers to spend their money elsewhere.

Overall retail sales for the August through October period increased 4.5% from the same time a year ago, while the October level gained 3.8% from the level in October 2013.

However, some analysts say the increase is not as high as it should be.

“Against the backdrop of three consecutive months of aggressive energy price reprieve, anything less than a 1% bounce in October retail sales highlights just how fragile the U.S. economy remains, particularly the consumer sector, against the backdrop of nonexistent wage pressures,” said Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza. “Consumers continue to spend, but at a modest level with no sign of further momentum in sight with income growth stubbornly limited.”

She pointed out an earlier released and separate October employment report showing average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, keeping the annual pace unchanged at 2%.

“We are a consumer-based economy, and if the consumer is struggling to go out and spend on goods and services, or Americans are simply hesitant to ramp up spending, headline activity is likely to significantly underperform the Federal Reserve's optimistic forecast of 2% growth in 2014 and around 3% growth in 2015," she said.

However, a separate report shows consumers this month are feeling better than they have in a long time.

The Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to a preliminary reading of 89.4, its highest level since July 2007. This compares to October's final reading of 86.9 and preliminary reading of 86.4.

The survey’s measure of current economic conditions and consumer expectations both posted gains; however, expectations that consumers’ incomes will increase fell, reinforcing PIegza's comments.

The jump in the index and increasing retail sales in October is fueling some analysts' expectation that retail sales this holiday season will be healthy, especially if gasoline prices continue falling as expected.

About the author
Evan Lockridge

Evan Lockridge

Former Business Contributing Editor

Trucking journalist since 1990, in the news business since early ‘80s.

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