American Trucking Associations' advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.6% in September after falling a revised 0.5% in August 2011, the group's economists announced.
The latest gain put the SA index at 115.8 (2000=100) in September, up from the August level of 114. August's decrease was more than the preliminary 0.2% figure ATA reported on Sept. 27.
"I continue to believe the economy will skirt another recession, because truck tonnage isn't showing signs that we are in a recession," said Bob Costello, ATA's chief economist. "Tonnage is suggesting that we are in a weak growth period for the economy, but not a recession."
Costello also noted that the third quarter average exhibited signs of small gains for the broader economy, not contraction.
"In the third quarter, tonnage was up 0.4% from the second quarter. Prior to the two previous recessions, truck tonnage was plummeting, but not this time."
The not-seasonally-adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 119.5 in September, which was 3.1% below the previous month, ATA said.
Compared with September 2010, SA tonnage was up a solid 5.9%. In August, the tonnage index was 4.9% above a year earlier.
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67.2% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9 billion tons of freight in 2010. ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s.
The latest gain put the SA index at 115.8 (2000=100) in September, up from the August level of 114. August's decrease was more than the preliminary 0.2% figure ATA reported on Sept. 27.
"I continue to believe the economy will skirt another recession, because truck tonnage isn't showing signs that we are in a recession," said Bob Costello, ATA's chief economist. "Tonnage is suggesting that we are in a weak growth period for the economy, but not a recession."
Costello also noted that the third quarter average exhibited signs of small gains for the broader economy, not contraction.
"In the third quarter, tonnage was up 0.4% from the second quarter. Prior to the two previous recessions, truck tonnage was plummeting, but not this time."
The not-seasonally-adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 119.5 in September, which was 3.1% below the previous month, ATA said.
Compared with September 2010, SA tonnage was up a solid 5.9%. In August, the tonnage index was 4.9% above a year earlier.
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67.2% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9 billion tons of freight in 2010. ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s.
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