Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Rising Factory Orders Latest Indicator of Interest Rate Hike

An increase in new factory orders is one of the latest economic signs that the Federal Reserve is moving close to another jump in interest rates, some analysts believe.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
March 6, 2017
Economic Watch: Rising Factory Orders Latest Indicator of Interest Rate Hike

 

3 min to read


An increase in new factory orders is one of the latest economic signs that  the Federal Reserve is moving close to another jump in interest rates, some analysts believe.

New orders for manufactured goods in January increased 1.2% from the month before, according to a full Commerce Department report released Monday, slightly better than a Wall Street consensus estimate. It was boosted by sizable jumps in the notoriously volatile aircraft components for both defense and nondefense.

Ad Loading...

This followed an unrevised 1.3% improvement in December while new orders are up 5.5% from January 2016.

Orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2% in January following two straight months of declines, better than the first estimated 1.8% gain.

Total shipments of factory goods increased 0.2% in January following a 2.5% surge in December, marking 11 consecutive monthly improvements.

Ad Loading...

Shipments of so-called “core-capital goods,” which are an indication of business investment and are used in calculating the nation’s gross domestic product, fell 0.4% in January, better than the first reported 0.6% drop.

“On balance, the hard data in the manufacturing sector continue to show improvement, although the pace has been slower than sentiment indicators alone would indicate,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.

He noted that core capital goods orders are up 8.7% on a three-month average annualized basis. That's the fastest pace since 2014 and it corroborates some of the rising sentiment seen in other indicators.

This and other recent indications, such an strong employment, rising prices and anecdotal evidence of a firming gross domestic product, have led some analysts to say they believe the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates when it meets later this month.

Among them is CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who said last week that "The rest of the economy is strong enough to take it” and there is no excuse for the central bank to not make its third increase is less than 18 months.

Ad Loading...

Also, according to Forbes.com, speaking in Chicago on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that as long as there aren't any major surprises from indicators on jobs and inflation over the next few days, a rate hike "would likely be appropriate" at the Fed's next meeting, which concludes on March 15.

Despite a number of Fed comments suggesting that a near-term rate hike remains a “possibility,” the market had continued to shrug off the likelihood of a rate adjustment later this month, according to Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza.

She explained that late last week the February Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement suggested a third-round rate hike “fairly soon” and still market participants continued to discount the probability of a change in the current level of the Fed funds rate just one and a half weeks from now. 

“Oddly enough, it wasn’t until two consistently hawkish Fed members reiterated that current economic conditions warrant a more aggressive policy stance and the President addressed Congress, offering little in the way of details or a specific timeline for legislative initiatives, that the market began to consider a March rate hike as of realistic possibility,” Piegza said.

She concluded that amid “still-tepid economic data suggesting little additional momentum in the underlying economy, Federal Reserve officials continue to issue warnings to the market that a near-term adjustment in policy is imminent, while noting the market has been disappointed before after buying into individual Fed members’ comments. 

Ad Loading...

“Unless the FOMC opts to abandon their data-dependent stance in exchange for one of fiscal policy anticipation, the Fed will likely continue to exercise patience, pulling the rug out from under the market’s certain expectation of a third rate hike come the 15th,” Piegza said.

More Fleet Management

TEN disaster prep.
Fleet ManagementMay 1, 2026

How Fleets Can Avoid Equipment Blind Spots in Disaster Response

When the unexpected happens, how you react to, and deal with operational blind spots is critical. Here’s how to keep you recovery on track, when nothing is normal.

Read More →
Illustration of cybersecurity images with "The Cyber Stop" text
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensApril 30, 2026

AI Security Risks for Trucking Fleets: What to Know About Deepfakes and Agentic AI

As fleets adopt artificial intelligence for routing, maintenance, and load matching, new security risks are emerging. Learn where the vulnerabilities are and how to put the right controls in place.

Read More →
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo

FMCSA’s Motus System Is Coming. What Fleets Need to Know Now

The long-awaited registration system promises a single portal — and tighter fraud controls.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
CargoNet 2026 Qi report.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 24, 2026

Cargo Theft Incidents Fall in Q1, but Organized Crime and Impersonation Drive New Risks

CargoNet reports fewer supply chain crime events to start 2026. But losses hold steady as organized crime shifts tactics toward impersonation schemes and high-value goods.

Read More →
Graphic with light bulbs, HDT Truck Fleet Innovators logo, and the word Nominations
Fleet ManagementApril 24, 2026

Nominations Open for HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026

Heavy Duty Trucking is searching for forward-looking leaders at trucking fleets as nominations for HDT’s Truck Fleet Innovators 2026. Deadline is May 15.

Read More →
Illustration with trojan horse and lock with inside of cargo container in background
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 23, 2026

New Trojan Driver Cargo Theft Scam Bypasses Carrier Vetting Systems

Cargo theft rings plant operatives as drivers inside legitimate, fully vetted carriers, then execute coordinated thefts that look like a traditional straight theft from the outside.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
ATA Truck Tonnage Index March 2026.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 22, 2026

March Truck Tonnage Posts Strongest Annual Gain Since 2022

A modest sequential increase capped the strongest quarterly performance in years, signaling continued freight momentum in early 2026.

Read More →
Toll road.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 22, 2026

Ohio Turnpike Targets $5.2 Million in Unpaid Tolls from Trucking Firms

More than 300 carriers across 26 states have been sent to collections as the Ohio Turnpike cracks down on toll evasion and delinquent payments.

Read More →
Illustration with ATRI logo and square blocks spelling out "research"
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeApril 20, 2026

'Beyond Compliance,' Regulations, Driver Coaching on ATRI’s 2026 Research List

The American Transportation Research Institute will examine driver coaching, regulatory impacts — including the "Beyond Compliance" concept —and weather disruptions that shape trucking operations.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Brian Antonellis, senior vice president, fleet operations, Fleet Advantage.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 17, 2026

Fleet Advantage's Brian Antonellis on the Growing Need to Replace Old Trucks

Fleet Advantage's Brian Antonellis says it's time for fleets to get back to the fundamentals of good maintenance practices. And that includes replacing older, inefficient equipment.

Read More →