Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Rising Factory Orders Latest Indicator of Interest Rate Hike

An increase in new factory orders is one of the latest economic signs that the Federal Reserve is moving close to another jump in interest rates, some analysts believe.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
March 6, 2017
Economic Watch: Rising Factory Orders Latest Indicator of Interest Rate Hike

 

3 min to read


An increase in new factory orders is one of the latest economic signs that  the Federal Reserve is moving close to another jump in interest rates, some analysts believe.

New orders for manufactured goods in January increased 1.2% from the month before, according to a full Commerce Department report released Monday, slightly better than a Wall Street consensus estimate. It was boosted by sizable jumps in the notoriously volatile aircraft components for both defense and nondefense.

Ad Loading...

This followed an unrevised 1.3% improvement in December while new orders are up 5.5% from January 2016.

Orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2% in January following two straight months of declines, better than the first estimated 1.8% gain.

Total shipments of factory goods increased 0.2% in January following a 2.5% surge in December, marking 11 consecutive monthly improvements.

Ad Loading...

Shipments of so-called “core-capital goods,” which are an indication of business investment and are used in calculating the nation’s gross domestic product, fell 0.4% in January, better than the first reported 0.6% drop.

“On balance, the hard data in the manufacturing sector continue to show improvement, although the pace has been slower than sentiment indicators alone would indicate,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.

He noted that core capital goods orders are up 8.7% on a three-month average annualized basis. That's the fastest pace since 2014 and it corroborates some of the rising sentiment seen in other indicators.

This and other recent indications, such an strong employment, rising prices and anecdotal evidence of a firming gross domestic product, have led some analysts to say they believe the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates when it meets later this month.

Among them is CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who said last week that "The rest of the economy is strong enough to take it” and there is no excuse for the central bank to not make its third increase is less than 18 months.

Ad Loading...

Also, according to Forbes.com, speaking in Chicago on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that as long as there aren't any major surprises from indicators on jobs and inflation over the next few days, a rate hike "would likely be appropriate" at the Fed's next meeting, which concludes on March 15.

Despite a number of Fed comments suggesting that a near-term rate hike remains a “possibility,” the market had continued to shrug off the likelihood of a rate adjustment later this month, according to Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza.

She explained that late last week the February Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement suggested a third-round rate hike “fairly soon” and still market participants continued to discount the probability of a change in the current level of the Fed funds rate just one and a half weeks from now. 

“Oddly enough, it wasn’t until two consistently hawkish Fed members reiterated that current economic conditions warrant a more aggressive policy stance and the President addressed Congress, offering little in the way of details or a specific timeline for legislative initiatives, that the market began to consider a March rate hike as of realistic possibility,” Piegza said.

She concluded that amid “still-tepid economic data suggesting little additional momentum in the underlying economy, Federal Reserve officials continue to issue warnings to the market that a near-term adjustment in policy is imminent, while noting the market has been disappointed before after buying into individual Fed members’ comments. 

Ad Loading...

“Unless the FOMC opts to abandon their data-dependent stance in exchange for one of fiscal policy anticipation, the Fed will likely continue to exercise patience, pulling the rug out from under the market’s certain expectation of a third rate hike come the 15th,” Piegza said.

More Fleet Management

Geotab screen on AI concept background
Fleet ManagementJune 17, 2026

What Geotab's New AI Connector Means for Fleets

Fleets can now ask their usual AI assistants questions about maintenance, safety, fuel use, and vehicle performance, using their live Geotab data, and take action on the answers without leaving their preferred AI tool.

Read More →
Image of computer screen with BidBoardX interface

New C.H. Robinson Tool Opens Door to More Predictable Freight

BidBoardX lets carriers search, bid on, and secure committed freight opportunities through a single digital marketplace.

Read More →
Amazon electric cargo bike on New York City street
Fleet ManagementJune 15, 2026

New York City's Microhub Project is Delivering Results

Trucking, last-mile delivery companies, and environmental advocates like what they are seeing so far with New York's microhub program.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration of hourglass and trucks backed up to a dock
DriversJune 15, 2026

Why Truck Detention Keeps Costing Fleets Time and Money

A 2024 ATRI study found detention affects nearly 40% of truckload stops and costs the industry more than $15 billion annually. Despite the toll on drivers, fleets, and supply chains, the problem remains stubbornly persistent.

Read More →
Panel discussion
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJune 12, 2026

Time is Running Out to Apply for Exclusive HDT Event

Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange brings fleet managers and suppliers together for the deeper conversations that lead to ideas, partnerships, and solutions. Time is running out to apply for the September event.

Read More →
Empty trailer with worker loading a pallet of cargo
Fleet ManagementJune 10, 2026

Amazon Launches Less-Than-Truckload Freight Offering for All Businesses   

This launch is the latest addition to Amazon Supply Chain Services, a portfolio of supply chain capabilities from Amazon, including freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Stacks of intermodal containers at port with truck driving between them

Import Cargo Volume to See Year-Over-Year Gain Again in June, Then Remain Below 2025 Levels Into Fall

After July, the report predicts a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.

Read More →
Equity Interest Auction
SponsoredJune 8, 2026

AUCTION OF EQUITY INTEREST IN HEAVY HAUL TRUCKING COMPANY!!

Mark your calendar: June 30, 2026 (10:00 a.m. PDT). A 37.5% ownership interest in MagnaTrans, LLC, a California limited liability company doing business as Magna Transportation Group, will be sold in an in-person and online auction to the highest bidder or bidders under Article 9 of the Uniform Commercial Code. The Rancho Cucamonga-based heavy haul and over-dimensional trucking company operates across California, Oregon, and Arizona.

Read More →
Volvo OTA updates.

Volvo Trucks Adds Unattended Over-the-Air Software Update Capabilities

The latest evolution of Volvo’s over-the-air update technology allows software updates to run while trucks are parked, helping fleets keep vehicles current without disrupting operations.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Podcast thumbnail illustration
Fleet ManagementJune 4, 2026

How Waste Connections is Using Data, Telematics, and AI

How do you manage and maintain more than 18,000 connected trucks? Data. Lots of it.

Read More →