Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Positive Indicators Prompt Talk of Interest Rate Hike

U.S. private sector employers reported another month of strong job gains on Wednesday, two days ahead of a government report. With increases in consumer confidence, personal spending and wages, it adds up to talk of a hike in interest rates as soon as September.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
August 31, 2016
Economic Watch: Positive Indicators Prompt Talk of Interest Rate Hike

 

5 min to read


U.S. private sector employers reported another month of strong job gains on Wednesday, two days ahead of a government report. With increases in consumer confidence, personal spending and wages, it adds up to talk of a hike in interest rates as soon as September.

According to the National Employment Report from payroll processor ADP, 177,000 non-farm jobs were added in August, just above Wall Street expectations. Iin addition, the July figure was revised upward from 179,000 additions to a 194,000-job gain.

Ad Loading...

“The American job machine continues to hum along. Job creation remains strong, with most industries and companies of all sizes adding solidly to their payrolls,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “The U.S. economy will soon be at full employment.”

This latest report follows figures from the U.S. Labor Department in early August showing non-farm employment increased by 225,000 in July while the nation’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, less than half its level following the aftermath of the Great Recession. New government figures for August are due out Friday, with a consensus estimate of economist forecasting 180,000 job additions.

“Job growth in August was stable and consistent with levels from previous months as consumer conditions improve,” says Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Continued strong growth in service-providing jobs is offset by weakness in goods-producing areas.”

Ad Loading...

According to the ADP report, however, goods-producing employment (the kind that leads most directly to truck freight) was down by 6,000 jobs in August, following July losses of 5,000. The construction industry lost 2,000 jobs, following July losses of 5,000 jobs. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs were flat in August, after gaining 5,000 in the previous month.

Service-providing employment rose by 183,000 jobs in August, fewer than July’s 199,000. Professional/business services contributed 53,000 jobs, down from July’s 70,000, while trade/transportation/utilities jobs increased by 26,000 in August, down from 31,000 jobs added the previous month.

Consumer Confidence Jumps

The report follows one from Tuesday by the private research group The Conference Board saying its Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased slightly in July, increased in August to its highest level in a year.

The index now stands at 101.1 compared to 96.7 in July. The Present Situation Index rose from 118.8 to 123, while the Expectations Index improved from 82 last month to 86.4 in August.

“Consumers’ assessment of both current business and labor market conditions was considerably more favorable than last month,” says Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Short-term expectations regarding business and employment conditions, as well as personal income prospects, also improved, suggesting the possibility of a moderate pick-up in growth in the coming months.”

Ad Loading...

The percentage of consumers who said business conditions are “good” increased from 27.3% to 30%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” remained virtually unchanged at 18.4%. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more favorable.

Consumers’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook picked up in August. The percentage expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 15.7% to 17.3%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more favorable than in July. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose from 13.5% to 14.2% while those anticipating fewer jobs remained virtually unchanged at 17.5%. The percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to increase improved from 17.1% to 18.8%, while the proportion expecting a decline decreased marginally from 11% percent to 10.7%.

Increased Consumer Spending

Such increased optimism is likely fueling increased consumer spending, with a report on Monday from the Commerce Department showing the fourth monthly increase in a row in July.

The 0.3% rise from the month before beat Wall Street expectations and follows an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in June.

Ad Loading...

During the second quarter U.S. consumer spending, one of the largest drivers of the American economy, grew at a 4.4% annual rate, its fastest pace in nearly two years.

Despite this healthy level, overall U.S. economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product output, increased at a revised 1.1% annual rate in the second quarter of the year, according to a report released late last week, due in large part to weak business investment.

Talk of Interest Rate Hike Getting Louder

In the wake of this report on consumer spending, which also showed healthy increases in wages and personal savings, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen publicly said she believes the door is now open to an increase in interest rates, possibly as soon as September. The Fed made its first interest rate hike in several years last December.

However, some economists believe the timing is not right to justify such a plan.

Against the backdrop of even weaker growth in the first half following the second quarter GDP report, negative business investment, moderate job creation and sluggish inflation, there is little justification at this point for a near-term hike, at least when looking at the fundamentals, according to Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income.

Ad Loading...

“Many of the hawks, however, will continue to argue in favor of raising rates with the U.S. economy facing increased risks from prolonged low rates or a lack of tools, should the economy slip into recession,” she says. “We suspect, at least for the time being, the former argument of current weak domestic growth will outweigh future ‘toolkit’ fears."

Conversely, others feel momentum in the American economy will pick up steam, including analysts at RBC Economics Research, who see a a return to above-trend growth in the overall economy as other sectors that have been lagging start to perform better.

“We look for a return to growth in business investment after three quarters of declines, as well as stronger residential investment and government spending, to support domestic demand,” said Josh Nye, RBC economist. “A positive contribution from inventories, which declined in the second quarter and subtracted more than a percentage point from growth, is also expected to help boost GDP growth to a 3% annualized pace in third quarter.”

The result, he said, will be more balanced growth over the second half of the year, rather than over-reliance on the consumer. This would likely further strengthen the case for an increase in interest rates.

More Fleet Management

PS Coach tablet interface showing a driver’s coaching inbox, safety event video and coaching advice for a harsh-braking event.
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

Platform Science Adds Dispatch and Safety Tools

Four additions to PS Fleet help fleets monitor loads, manage driver coaching, share truck locations and adjust video system settings.

Read More →
Screen capture showing PrePass Intelligence data on tolls
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

PrePass Intelligence Mines Fleet Bypass, Toll and Safety Data

PrePass Intelligence helps fleets measure bypass savings, flag potential toll overcharges, and spot suspicious transactions by combining data from separate systems.

Read More →
Computer screen showing examples of what fleets could ask Motive AI Agents to do
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 20, 2026

Motive Adds AI Agents for Fleet Operations

New tools automate follow-up on fleet data, from maintenance work orders to driver alerts, with two-way voice conversations planned for later this year.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Graphic art with a heavy-duty tractor trailer and a work truck with the words "trivia lunch"
Fleet Management•by Lauren Fletcher•October 19, 2026

Can You Beat Our Trucking Trivia Challenge?

Test your truck knowledge with 19 trivia questions from Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange. Can you keep up with the fleet pros?

Read More →
Four horizontal and two vertical video screens show different aspects of BeyondTruck's new compatibility engine
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

BeyondTrucks Adds Rules Checks to Dispatch

New Compatibility Engine checks driver qualifications, equipment requirements and fleet policies before loads are dispatched.

Read More →
Gloved hand fueling a truck beside a graphic listing ATRI’s top three trucking concerns for 2026: fuel prices, lawsuit abuse reform and CSA.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

Diesel Prices Hijack Trucking’s Worry List

ATRI’s annual survey finds cautious optimism about freight, but diesel costs, litigation, and insurance continue to squeeze fleets. Drivers have different priorities on several issues.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration showing ladders against a blue background with Heavy Duty Trucking Emerging Leaders logo and the words "2026 nominations now open"
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 16, 2026

Nomination Deadline Extended for HDT Emerging Leaders

Just a few more days to nominate accomplished trucking fleet professionals under 40 who are making an impact and helping lead the industry forward for the HDT Emerging Leaders award. Deadline extended to October 20!

Read More →
Headshot of Mark Colson in front of a truck grille next to an American Trucking Associations logo
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 15, 2026

What Will ATA’s New Leader Bring to Trucking's Table?

Incoming President and CEO Mark Colson’s record in Alabama offers clues about his priorities and approach following Chris Spear’s abrupt departure as the head of the American Trucking Associations.

Read More →
Waabi-Volvo autonomous VNL truck.
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 13, 2026

Volvo, Waabi Start Commercial Autonomous Operations in Texas

Volvo VNL Autonomous trucks, powered by the Waabi Driver, are hauling freight directly to third-party facilities for a customer in Texas.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration of silver robot waving his hand and a Samsara AI prompt on screen to call drivers
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 13, 2026

Samsara Launches Custom AI Agent Builder

Agent Studio lets fleets create AI tools for hours-of-service monitoring, reporting and driver support, including agents that communicate by phone.

Read More →