Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Diesel Prices Expected to Jump 15% Next Year

A new government forecast is calling for double-digit gains in diesel prices next year, although gasoline is expected increase by only half as much.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
July 12, 2016
Diesel Prices Expected to Jump 15% Next Year

 

2 min to read


A new government forecast is calling for double-digit gains in diesel prices next year, while gasoline is expected increase by only half as much.

The Energy Department’s latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook calls for trucking’s main fuel to average $2.71 per gallon in 2017, a 15.1% hike from this year’s forecast average of $2.36 per gallon.

Ad Loading...

If this happens it would return diesel to the average level seen in 2015. However, that's still far less than the $3.83 per gallon average in 2014 reached before fuel prices dropped due to falling crude oil prices stemming from overproduction and decreased worldwide demand.

The average cost of regular grade gasoline is expected to increase just 7.6% in 2017 to $2.28 per gallon, following an expected average this year of $2.12 per gallon. This compares to an average of $2.43 per gallon in 2015 and $3.36 in 2014.

In the nearer term, diesel is expected to increase in the third quarter of this year to an average of $2.48 per gallon following a second quarter average of $2.30 per gallon. It is forecast to continue slowly rising each consecutive quarter through 2017, when the average is expected to hit $2.87 per gallon.

Ad Loading...

In contrast, regular grade gasoline is expected to average $2.25 per gallon in the current quarter, the same at it was in the second quarter but up from $1.90 per gallon in the first quarter of 2016. It’s then projected to average a little above $2 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017 before peaking next year at $2.39 in the third quarter.

Likely helping to push prices higher will be that U.S. crude oil production averaged 8.6 million barrels per day in June, slightly below the previous month’s level and well below the 9.7 million barrels per day reached in April 2015. Also worldwide crude inventory increases are expected to slow this year to a daily rate that’s a little less than half the pace seen in 2015. In 2017 it's projected to be just a fraction of what it was two years earlier.

More Fuel Smarts

EquipmentJuly 23, 2026

Cummins Adjusts 2027 Engine Rollout After EPA Proposal

The engine maker will gradually introduce its new Model Year 2027 diesel engines while continuing to offer current models during the transition, citing the EPA's proposed emissions rule changes.

Read More →
Four men in suits on the National Mall with giant video screen showing capitol building in the background
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJuly 10, 2026

EPA Proposal Could Ease 2027 Truck Costs and Buying Uncertainty

The proposal doesn't change the tougher NOx standard, but it would revise key implementation requirements that manufacturers say have driven up costs and complicated fleet purchasing decisions.

Read More →
Illustration showing Paccar MX engine with sketch illustration of DEF fill tank in background
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJuly 7, 2026

Cummins, Paccar Ease DEF Derates After EPA Guidance

Updated diesel engine software gives truck operators more time to address emissions-system issues while staying compliant with EPA emissions standards.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration with wrenches in background with "Maintenance in the Messy Middle: Biodiesel" text and NACFE Run on Less logo
Maintenanceby Jack RobertsJuly 2, 2026

Maintenance in the Messy Middle Part 3: Biodiesel

Biodiesel can reduce emissions, improve fuel-system lubricity and use existing diesel infrastructure. But NACFE’s Messy Middle maintenance report says fleets must actively manage storage, cold-weather operation, filters and oil drain intervals to avoid problems.

Read More →
thermo king heavy duty trucking
SponsoredJuly 1, 2026

Enhance Fleet Performance with High-Efficiency Auxiliary Power Units

Drive sustainable cost savings while increasing driver comfort during short- and long-haul logistics operations.

Read More →
Illustration with wrenches in background with "Maintenance in the Messy Middle: Renewable Diesel" text and NACFE Run on Less logo
Maintenanceby Jack RobertsJune 29, 2026

Maintenance in the ‘Messy Middle’ Part 2: Renewable Diesel Fuel

NACFE's latest Messy Middle Powertrain Service & Maintenance report says renewable diesel gives fleets an opportunity to reduce carbon emissions without changing trucks, fueling infrastructure or maintenance practices. But technicians still need to understand several important operational differences.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration messy middle maintenance diesel with wrenches in background
Maintenanceby Jack RobertsJune 26, 2026

The Diesel Engine Enters NACFE’s ‘Messy Middle’

NACFE’s new Messy Middle Powertrain Service & Maintenance report says keeping modern diesel engines running now depends as much on software, diagnostics and data as traditional mechanical service.

Read More →
Illustration showing DEF tank and Detroit engine
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJune 18, 2026

DTNA Software Update Gives Truckers More Time Before DEF Derates Take Effect

The changes reflect EPA guidance aimed at reducing downtime caused by emissions-system faults while maintaining compliance requirements.

Read More →
Illustration of exhaust aftertreatment system on an AI-inspired blue background and a green fuel pump nozzle in the foreground.
Maintenanceby Deborah LockridgeJune 15, 2026

New Agentic Predictive Maintenance Report Demonstrates How Degraded Aftertreatment Systems Waste Fuel

Questar analyzed a large mixed-class fleet and discovered it was wasting as much as $30 in fuel per vehicle, per day, because of mechanically degraded aftertreatment systems.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Amazon electric cargo bike on New York City street
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJune 15, 2026

New York City's Microhub Project is Delivering Results

Trucking, last-mile delivery companies, and environmental advocates like what they are seeing so far with New York's microhub program.

Read More →