Economic Watch: Industrial Production Falls Despite Increased Manufacturing

UPDATED -- Industrial production in the U.S. edged down 0.1% in October after having advanced 0.8% in September, according to new figures from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

In October, manufacturing output increased 0.2% for the second consecutive month, mining declined 0.9% and the output of utilities moved down 0.7%.

At 104.9% of its 2007 average, total industrial production in October was 4% above its level of a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.3 of a percentage point in October to 78.9%, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2013.

In October, declines in consumer goods and materials were the largest contributors to the decrease in total industrial production, according to the Federal Reserve, while measures of defense and space equipment and for business supplies also recorded declines.

Gains in the production of business equipment, which increased 0.6%, and construction supplies offset some of the losses. The output of consumer goods moved down 0.2%, with decreases of more than 1% for automotive products and paper products and with a smaller decline for energy goods.

"After months of overzealous production, manufacturing activity appears to be softening or at the very least on softer footing as we head further into the final quarter of the year," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at the investment firm Sterne Agee. "While some analysts are pointing to falling energy prices and solid consumer confidence numbers as a basis for increased optimism as we approach the key holiday spending season, consumers are known to say one thing and do another, and now with three months of extreme energy price reprieve under our belts, there is very little to show for it in the retail numbers. In other words, consumers may be more restrained than previously thought against the backdrop of minimal income growth, undermining more optimistic expectations for end of the year growth."

She said as European, Japanese, and Chinese growth slows, domestic consumption is that much more important to support and bolster growth in the final quarter of the year, as the U.S. external sector will expectedly take a hit.

Update adds chief economist analysis.