Economic Watch: Durable Goods Activity Slows, Consumers Upbeat

An advance report shows shipments of durable goods increased just slightly last month while new orders fell for the second straight month.

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Tuesday shipments increased 0.1% following an August drop of 1.8%, while up three out of the last four months. A decline in fabricated metal products led the gain, up 0.6% in September.

New orders for these big ticket items designed to last three years or more fell in September 1.3% following a drop of 18.3% in August, offsetting a 22.5% gain in July due to a huge spike in aircraft orders. The September decline was the second straight monthly drop and the biggest in eight months. Transportation orders led the decrease falling 3.7%.

Excluding transportation new orders still fell by 0.2% while excluding new defense orders it fell 1.5%. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, fell 1.7% in September, its largest decline since January.

“After the volatility from July and August settled, the underlying momentum appears to have waned on the final month of the third quarter, said Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza. “Manufacturing activity had increased robustly throughout the second and third quarters, creating an optimistic platform for businesses to invest on equipment, structures and additional employees. However, that ramp up in activity was predicated on a consumer, both domestically and internationally, able and willing to absorb such an elevated level of production.”

She warned with consumers faltering in the U.S., as well as abroad, manufacturing activity and business spending is already losing steam, and likely to reign in further in the final quarter of the year.

Meantime, a separate report shows consumer confidence in the U.S. rebounded this month from a September drop, hitting a seven-year high.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 94.5 up from 89 in September.

The Present Situation Index edged up from 93 to 93.7, while the Expectations Index increased sharply to 95 from 86.4 in September.

“A more favorable assessment of the current job market and business conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers’ view of the present situation,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board “Looking ahead, consumers have regained confidence in the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, and are more optimistic about their future earnings potential. With the holiday season around the corner, this boost in confidence should be a welcome sign for retailers.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was moderately more favorable in October than in September. Their view of business conditions was mixed while the proportion saying conditions are “good” inched up from 24.2% to 24.5%. Those claiming business conditions are “bad” also increased slightly, from 21.2% to 21.7%.

Consumers’ assessment of the job market improved moderately, with the proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” increasing marginally from 16.3% to 16.5%, and those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declining slightly from 29.4% to 29.1%.