Survey Examines How Regulatory Uncertainty Affects Fleet Business Plans

When asked about whether regulatory uncertainty has caused them to rethink the future of their company, more than half of fleet managers surveyed said they were staying the course. Smaller carriers, however, were more likely to be thinking of selling the company or at least some assets.

Transport Capital Partners recently completed its Business Expectation Survey for the third quarter. "Only about a quarter of the carriers say they are planning to change their business model in this uncertain environment," says Richard Mikes, TCP partner. "The other quarter of respondents plan to take capital gain dividends, sell assets, or sell their firms in 2010."

Both large and small carriers report similar plans to cope, noted Lana Batts, TCP partner. The numbers of carriers considering leaving the industry if volumes don't improve over the next six months rose from 13 percent to 16 percent from the last quarter surveyed.

"While overall carrier interest in selling remained unchanged from the last several quarters at 20 percent, size clearly matters, in this case," Mikes says. "Thirty percent of carriers under $25 million in revenue are interested in selling, while only 14 percent of those above that level responded they would consider selling."

"These results mirror our present M&A activity with smaller carriers, who ask our partners about their options for the future more often than larger carriers," added Batts.

The number of respondents who say they would consider buying fell slightly, from 38 percent to 36 percent this quarter.

TCP expects to see more merger and acquisition activity as carriers try to cope and take advantage of the new environment.

"Maybe the somewhat diminished outlook by smaller carriers for rates and volumes has dampened their expectations for expansion, whether it is in truck count or acquiring another carrier," Mikes said.

Both Mikes and Batts speculate that the recent slowdown in freight increases, coupled with the uncertain political and economic outlook, may be responsible for decreased carrier optimism levels.

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