The market for commercial vehicles is expected to pick back up in 2010 as the economy trends up, according to the latest report from Polk & Co. In the July issue of "Polk View," "The Future of the U.S. Commercial Vehicle Market," the automotive market intelligence company predicts sales will rebound after the housing market bottoms out.


For 2009, Polk expects registrations of commercial vehicles in Classes 3-8 to drop for the third consecutive year, nearly 21 percent (from 485,000 to 380,600. Although a further decline is possible if the economy does not show improvement in the near term, Polk expects a boost in sales as freight delivery and construction pick up. The housing market is projected to "bottom out" this month, and as that market and the economy start to pick up, vehicle sales are expected to increase as well.

However, slower growth is predicted for commercial vehicle registrations, as both the private and public sectors are delaying purchase of replacement vehicles. This is expected to continue to be a trend for the next few years.

By 2013, Polk predicts total commercial vehicle registrations to reach 583,900, still well below pre-2008 volumes. In 2006, commercial vehicle registrations reached their peak volume of 802,100, with 448,200 heavy trucks (GVW 6-8) and 353,900 medium trucks (GVW 3-5), Polk notes.

The number of total vehicles in operation has also slowed, especially in the Class 6-8 market. The percentage of Class 3-5 trucks in operation has been increasing. By 2013, Polk predicts these smaller trucks will make up almost 45 percent of the total commercial vehicles on the road, up from 38.6 percent in 2004. This is mostly driven by the increase in Class 3 trucks.

Polk notes that part of the decline in new Class 8 registrations is thanks to government regulations to reduce diesel emissions that have led to price increases. From 2009 to 2013, heavy-duty trucks should grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate of 0.3 percent, while medium-duty is expected to grow 3.1 percent.

The full report can be downloaded at www.polk.com/knowledge/pv10.


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