EIA Forecasts a 44 Percent Boost in Energy Use by 2030

May 28, 2009

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The Energy Information Administration predicts that world energy use will increase 44 percent between 2006 and 2030 and that oil prices will rise to $130 per barrel by 2030.

The "International Energy Outlook 2009" says that while the current global economic crisis will lower demand for energy worldwide in the near term, most countries will bounce back as a result of the anticipated recovery.

The outlook projects that total world energy use will grow to 551 quadrillion British thermal units in 2015 from 472 quadrillion Btu in 2006. For 2030, it is expected to rise to 678 quadrillion Btu.

Even though world oil prices have dropped from their July 2008 mark, they are expected to rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 and $130 per barrel in 2030. The use of total liquid fuels will most likely increase.

The report also finds that production of unconventional resources, including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids, should climb to from 3.1 barrels per day in 2006 to 13.4 million barrels per day, which would be 13 percent of total world liquids.

Other report findings include:

* An increased interest in the development of alternatives to fossil fuels. High prices for fossil fuels and government incentives for the development of alternative energy should drive the growth of this source of world electricity generation. Hyrdopower and wind power are the major sources of renewable energy supply.

* A rise in industrial energy consumption is expected, especially in emerging economies. The reference case attributes the change to rapid economic growth.

* Additional energy use will lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, among the developing nations.

The full report can be found on EIA's website:

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