Continued economic progress, population growth and the pursuit of improved living standards in the developing world will be the key driver of global energy demand over the next two decades, Exxon Mobil Corp.
said this week in releasing its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030.
The Outlook for Energy is developed annually, and is the product of an ongoing process that has been conducted over decades. The results are used to assist ExxonMobil's business planning and to increase public understanding of the world's energy needs and challenges.
The outlook is developed through a detailed analysis of approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 fuel types and is underpinned by economic and population projections and expectations of significant energy efficiency improvements and technology advancements.
Among this year's findings:
• Annual energy demand growth is expected to average 1.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2030.
• Energy demand growth in the developing world, which includes countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is expected to be 2 percent per year - four times that of the developed world at 0.5 percent per year.
• A wide variety of energy sources will be required to meet global demand, which is expected to be one-third higher by 2030 compared to today, reaching close to the daily equivalent of 325 million barrels of oil.
• Hydrocarbons will continue to account for about 80 percent of energy demand through 2030; oil and gas alone will account for approximately 60 percent.
• Among renewable energy sources, wind, solar and biofuels grow rapidly at about 9 percent per year, reflecting government subsidies and mandates. These energy sources currently represent about 0.5 percent of world energy, and are expected to reach approximately 2 percent by 2030.
• Energy efficiency as measured by energy intensity - global energy demand divided by global GDP - has been improving by approximately 1 percent per year since 1980. Improvements are expected to accelerate with development and deployment of advanced technologies and average 1.6 percent per year in the future.
• Projected growth of emissions of carbon dioxide from energy use varies in the developed and developing world. Increased reliance on coal and strong growth in all fossil fuel use is expected to increase energy-related CO2 emissions in the developing world by 2 percent per year. Overall low energy demand growth combined with a shrinking reliance on coal will keep CO2 emissions in the developed world almost constant through 2030.
• Slowing the growth of carbon dioxide emissions will require global participation, step changes in energy efficiency, technology gains and massive investment over decades. Substantial and cost-effective CO2 reduction efforts will need to maximize the use of markets and reach broadly across the economy, involving everyone from producers to consumers.
"The energy challenges faced by the world are undeniable," said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive. "Economic progress will drive energy demand, oil and gas will remain indispensable for the foreseeable future, and a global effort will be required to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.
"ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook provides us with an opportunity to use a common set of data in seeking solutions to the world's energy challenges. Understanding the outlook for energy and thoughtfully examining our options is essential."
For more information on the Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, visit www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook