The SARS virus has begun to slow economic activity in Asian economies, says Newport Communications' senior economist Jim Haughey.
To date, however, the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome is minimal and has yet to flow through the supply chain to the U.S.
The virus is thought to have originated in China's principal manufacturing district near Hong Kong and has been spread by travelers to Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Singapore and Taiwan.
So far, several groups of people have been quarantined, schools have been closed in Hong Kong and Singapore and a handful of small factories have been closed. Tens of thousands have been reported to be staying away from work in several cities, and business managers from outside the impacted area have canceled visits.
If the reluctance to congregate in groups in Asia or travel to Asia remains by mid-April, there will be a small but noticeable reduction of freight flows to and from Asia for at least a few months, Haughey predicts.
The largest impacts will be in electronic components, electronic systems, and apparel and household goods. New designs and new orders are being delayed or moved elsewhere with the cancellation of business meetings.
It is very likely that the virus will be controlled before any sustained and measurable freight reduction occurs in the U.S., Haughey says. However, China's reputation as a reliable supplier will suffer some damage. China's reluctance to acknowledge the virus and the tenement-style housing for industrial workers (part of a public health problem), will both remind buyers in the U.S., Japan and Europe that the reliability of supplies from China is still fragile.
This will slow the mad rush to transfer production to China that has savaged U.S. manufacturing, according to Haughey.
Meanwhile, a survey released Thursday by the International Security Management Assn.(ISMA), a worldwide organization of chief security officers with major international businesses, revealed that a majority of its member companies are restricting travel to the Asia Pacific area due to concerns about SARS.
George K. Campbell, ISMA president, said 45.6% of his members reported that their companies were restricting travel to Asia Pacific countries to critical business or essential business only.
Other results of the ISMA survey indicated that 34.2% of the companies have no concerns and have issued no restrictions; 12.7% have totally banned travel to Asia Pacific countries; and 7.6% are discouraging travel.
To date, however, the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome is minimal and has yet to flow through the supply chain to the U.S.
The virus is thought to have originated in China's principal manufacturing district near Hong Kong and has been spread by travelers to Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Singapore and Taiwan.
So far, several groups of people have been quarantined, schools have been closed in Hong Kong and Singapore and a handful of small factories have been closed. Tens of thousands have been reported to be staying away from work in several cities, and business managers from outside the impacted area have canceled visits.
If the reluctance to congregate in groups in Asia or travel to Asia remains by mid-April, there will be a small but noticeable reduction of freight flows to and from Asia for at least a few months, Haughey predicts.
The largest impacts will be in electronic components, electronic systems, and apparel and household goods. New designs and new orders are being delayed or moved elsewhere with the cancellation of business meetings.
It is very likely that the virus will be controlled before any sustained and measurable freight reduction occurs in the U.S., Haughey says. However, China's reputation as a reliable supplier will suffer some damage. China's reluctance to acknowledge the virus and the tenement-style housing for industrial workers (part of a public health problem), will both remind buyers in the U.S., Japan and Europe that the reliability of supplies from China is still fragile.
This will slow the mad rush to transfer production to China that has savaged U.S. manufacturing, according to Haughey.
Meanwhile, a survey released Thursday by the International Security Management Assn.(ISMA), a worldwide organization of chief security officers with major international businesses, revealed that a majority of its member companies are restricting travel to the Asia Pacific area due to concerns about SARS.
George K. Campbell, ISMA president, said 45.6% of his members reported that their companies were restricting travel to Asia Pacific countries to critical business or essential business only.
Other results of the ISMA survey indicated that 34.2% of the companies have no concerns and have issued no restrictions; 12.7% have totally banned travel to Asia Pacific countries; and 7.6% are discouraging travel.
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