Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Diesel Prices Expected to Jump 15% Next Year

A new government forecast is calling for double-digit gains in diesel prices next year, although gasoline is expected increase by only half as much.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
July 12, 2016
Diesel Prices Expected to Jump 15% Next Year

 

2 min to read


A new government forecast is calling for double-digit gains in diesel prices next year, while gasoline is expected increase by only half as much.

The Energy Department’s latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook calls for trucking’s main fuel to average $2.71 per gallon in 2017, a 15.1% hike from this year’s forecast average of $2.36 per gallon.

Ad Loading...

If this happens it would return diesel to the average level seen in 2015. However, that's still far less than the $3.83 per gallon average in 2014 reached before fuel prices dropped due to falling crude oil prices stemming from overproduction and decreased worldwide demand.

The average cost of regular grade gasoline is expected to increase just 7.6% in 2017 to $2.28 per gallon, following an expected average this year of $2.12 per gallon. This compares to an average of $2.43 per gallon in 2015 and $3.36 in 2014.

In the nearer term, diesel is expected to increase in the third quarter of this year to an average of $2.48 per gallon following a second quarter average of $2.30 per gallon. It is forecast to continue slowly rising each consecutive quarter through 2017, when the average is expected to hit $2.87 per gallon.

Ad Loading...

In contrast, regular grade gasoline is expected to average $2.25 per gallon in the current quarter, the same at it was in the second quarter but up from $1.90 per gallon in the first quarter of 2016. It’s then projected to average a little above $2 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017 before peaking next year at $2.39 in the third quarter.

Likely helping to push prices higher will be that U.S. crude oil production averaged 8.6 million barrels per day in June, slightly below the previous month’s level and well below the 9.7 million barrels per day reached in April 2015. Also worldwide crude inventory increases are expected to slow this year to a daily rate that’s a little less than half the pace seen in 2015. In 2017 it's projected to be just a fraction of what it was two years earlier.

More Fuel Smarts

NACFE Run on Less 2026 findings.
Fuel Smartsby Jack RobertsMay 1, 2026

NACFE: Fleets Need to Recalibrate TCO Strategies as Electric Trucks Gain a Long-Term Edge

NACFE’s Run on Less data has found that recent setbacks aside, electric truck powertrains are trending toward market leadership by 2025.

Read More →
Gray Volvo tractor pulling trailer on open highway
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeMay 1, 2026

New High-Horsepower Natural Gas Engine Could Expand Fleet Options

Westport and Volvo are demonstrating a 500-hp truck with diesel-like efficiency — one that also offers what Westport says is a better pathway to using hydrogen fuel in trucks.

Read More →
Illustration with oil wells silhouetted against red and gold sky
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeMay 1, 2026

Why Fuel Diversification Matters for Trucking Fleets

Relying on diesel alone exposes fleets to fuel price volatility. Here’s why diversification with electric, natural gas, and renewable fuels can reduce risk.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Range Energy eTrailer.
Fuel Smartsby News/Media ReleaseApril 17, 2026

Range Energy Confirms eTrailer Performance in Winter Testing as Commercial Rollout Nears

Range Energy said its production-ready eTrailer system proved it can boost stability, safety, and efficiency in sub-zero winter conditions as the company moves toward scaled deployment.

Read More →
Circles with trucks demonstrating sustainable features and Top Green Fleets logo
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeApril 16, 2026

Top Green Fleets of 2026: Nomination Deadline Extended

Is your company a leader in sustainability efforts among trucking fleets? If so, Heavy Duty Trucking's editors want to hear from you.

Read More →
Youtube thumbnail featuring man in Big-Lebowski-inspired sweater
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeApril 13, 2026

New Lightweight Wheel Cover Targets Simpler Aero Gains [Watch]

Watch to learn how Deflecktor's new wheel cover design is taking a simpler approach to aerodynamics, with an eye toward making it more practical for both trucks and trailers.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Dual truck tires with black aerodynamic wheel cover and a man bending down getting ready to take one off
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeApril 10, 2026

Deflecktor: Hubbub Aerodynamic Wheel Cover Cost-Effective Even for Trailers

Aerodynamic wheel covers can deliver small but meaningful fuel-economy gains for fleets, and Deflecktor says its latest design aims to make the technology easier and more affordable to deploy.

Read More →
Podcast thumbnail saying "How to Save on Fuel Costs" with diesel pump in the background and photo of the woman guest
Fuel SmartsApril 9, 2026

Cutting Fleet Fuel Costs in a Volatile Market [Listen]

When diesel prices are as volatile as they've been in 2026, it makes it tough for trucking fleets to plan and control costs. Breakthrough Fuel's Jenny Vander Zanden has insights on near-term savings strategies.

Read More →
YouTube thumbnail saying "How to Save on Fuel Costs" with woman's photo and a photo of a diesel price pump
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeApril 9, 2026

Diesel Price Swings Aren’t Over. What Can Your Fleet Do?

Practical steps fleets can take to manage fuel costs, from purchasing strategies to driver behavior.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration with oil wells, dollar bills, and a diesel fuel pump
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeApril 7, 2026

Diesel Prices Surge Toward Record Highs as Oil Price Volatility Intensifies

Prices jumped another 24 cents in a week, with California topping $7.50 and new data showing fleet fuel costs may already be at record levels.

Read More →