Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: GDP Growth Revised Upward, Durable Goods Fall Again

Growth in the overall American economy in the final quarter of last year improved by double the government's initial estimate, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report released Friday. A separate reports shows the country’s manufacturing sector is still sluggish but housing continues to do well.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
March 25, 2016
Economic Watch: GDP Growth Revised Upward, Durable Goods Fall Again

 

4 min to read


Growth in the overall American economy in the final quarter of last year improved by double the government's initial estimate, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report released Friday. A separate reports shows the country’s manufacturing sector is still sluggish but housing continues to do well.

The gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in this third estimate, rather than the 1% pace reported a month ago and well ahead of the anemic 0.7% rate of the original estimate released in January.

Ad Loading...

This compares to a 2% rate of increase in the third quarter of 2015, 3.9% in the second quarter and just 0.6% in the first quarter of last year. The average pace in the first three quarters of last year was 2.2%, stronger than the fourth quarter rate.

Why the revision? “The general picture of economic growth remains largely the same," the report explained, but "personal consumption expenditures increased more than previously estimated.”

The GDP increased at a annual rate of 2.4% for all of 2015, the same as it was in last month’s estimate.

Ad Loading...

Before the latest numbers were released, RBC Economic said, “We continue to expect that stronger domestic household spending growth will result in a pickup in gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2016 from the 1.0% gain posted in the fourth quarter of 2015, although a continued drag from net trade and indications of weaker than expected business investment spending leave the monthly data pointing to a slightly smaller 1.9% gain in the quarter than the 2.2% increase that we had previously expected.”

Durables Still Part of Weak Manufacturing Picture

Meantime, a separate report released Thursday by the department shows continuing lower new orders and shipments for manufactured goods designed to last at least three years, known as durable goods.

The 2.8% drop in durable goods orders in February from the month before follows a downwardly revised 4.8% improvement in January, which was the first hike out of the last four months. Year-over-year, orders remains positive, up 1.8%.

Last month’s decline was driven by a 6.2% drop in new transportation orders. An indicator of future business investment, new orders minus those for defense and aircraft, fell 1.8% in February after advancing a downwardly revised 3.1% in January and falling 3.5% in December 2015.

The corresponding shipments measure declined by 1.1% in February. That follows January's downwardly revised 1.3% drop, first reported as a 0.4% decline, leaving the average measure for the two months at an annual rate that’s 7.2% below its fourth-quarter 2015 average, according to RBC Economics.

Ad Loading...

Overall shipments of durable goods fell 0.9% in February. That number is down two out of the past thee months. It was led by the transportation sector, which saw shipments fall 0.6%.

Durable goods orders remain under pressure, with three of the past four months posting negative growth, reinforcing an ongoing trend of weak capital investment, according to Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel Fixed Income.

“Businesses remain hesitant to invest in equipment and structures, as well as high-wage, full-time employees during a still-fragile recovery,” she said. “Amid tepid domestic and international demand, a strong U.S. dollar, and lingering uncertainty exacerbated by the upcoming Presidential election, not to mention ample regulation hanging overhead, many businesses remain on the sideline. Of course without business investment and expansion, there is little expectation for additional job creation and wage growth, which continues to keep the U.S. consumer restrained.”

This report follows one on the nation’s wider manufacturing sector for this month showing a slight uptick in activity, but growth remains weak as it has since the start of the year.

New Home Sales Bounce Back A Little

One area of the economy that continues to perform well is the homebuilding and sales sector.

Ad Loading...

Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 2% in February from an upwardly revised January reading to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000 units, according to the Commerce Department.

“The February bounce back in sales is in line with our builders’ reports that the housing market continues to recover at a slow but steady pace,” said Ed Brady, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

January’s level was also revised upward to 502,000 units from the previously reported 494,000 units.

The February increase was driven entirely by new home sales rising 38.5% in the West. Sales dropped 4.1% in the South, 17.9% in the Midwest and 24.2% in the Northeast.

“While builders contend with industry headwinds such as labor shortages, relatively low mortgage interest rates and solid job growth should keep the housing market moving ahead as we enter the spring buying season,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Ad Loading...

New homes sales account for about one-tenth of the U.S. housing market.

The report follows the earlier reported disappointing performance of existing home sales in Februar,y where activity fell sharply, with weakness concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest.

“With today’s report showing similar weakness in these regions, it is likely that the late-January winter storm may have hampered homebuyer activity over the first two months of the year,” said Laura Cooper, economist at RBC Economic. “A return to seasonable weather conditions along with still-supportive borrowing conditions and ongoing hiring gains should see some of the weakness in overall sales activity reverse as the spring housing market kicks off.”

More Fleet Management

ATA economist Bob Costello speaking beside a graph showing truckload operating costs rising as freight revenue per mile declined after 2022.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 22, 2026

Why This Trucking Recovery Is Different

Freight demand remains sluggish, but rising costs and tougher enforcement have taken enough capacity out of the market to change the outlook for motor carriers.

Read More →
PS Coach tablet interface showing a driver’s coaching inbox, safety event video and coaching advice for a harsh-braking event.
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

Platform Science Adds Dispatch and Safety Tools

Four additions to PS Fleet help fleets monitor loads, manage driver coaching, share truck locations and adjust video system settings.

Read More →
Screen capture showing PrePass Intelligence data on tolls
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

PrePass Intelligence Mines Fleet Bypass, Toll and Safety Data

PrePass Intelligence helps fleets measure bypass savings, flag potential toll overcharges, and spot suspicious transactions by combining data from separate systems.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Computer screen showing examples of what fleets could ask Motive AI Agents to do
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 20, 2026

Motive Adds AI Agents for Fleet Operations

New tools automate follow-up on fleet data, from maintenance work orders to driver alerts, with two-way voice conversations planned for later this year.

Read More →
Graphic art with a heavy-duty tractor trailer and a work truck with the words "trivia lunch"
Fleet Management•by Lauren Fletcher•October 19, 2026

Can You Beat Our Trucking Trivia Challenge?

Test your truck knowledge with 19 trivia questions from Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange. Can you keep up with the fleet pros?

Read More →
Four horizontal and two vertical video screens show different aspects of BeyondTruck's new compatibility engine
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

BeyondTrucks Adds Rules Checks to Dispatch

New Compatibility Engine checks driver qualifications, equipment requirements and fleet policies before loads are dispatched.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Gloved hand fueling a truck beside a graphic listing ATRI’s top three trucking concerns for 2026: fuel prices, lawsuit abuse reform and CSA.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

Diesel Prices Hijack Trucking’s Worry List

ATRI’s annual survey finds cautious optimism about freight, but diesel costs, litigation, and insurance continue to squeeze fleets. Drivers have different priorities on several issues.

Read More →
Illustration showing ladders against a blue background with Heavy Duty Trucking Emerging Leaders logo and the words "2026 nominations now open"
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 16, 2026

Nomination Deadline Extended for HDT Emerging Leaders

Just a few more days to nominate accomplished trucking fleet professionals under 40 who are making an impact and helping lead the industry forward for the HDT Emerging Leaders award. Deadline extended to October 20!

Read More →
Headshot of Mark Colson in front of a truck grille next to an American Trucking Associations logo
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 15, 2026

What Will ATA’s New Leader Bring to Trucking's Table?

Incoming President and CEO Mark Colson’s record in Alabama offers clues about his priorities and approach following Chris Spear’s abrupt departure as the head of the American Trucking Associations.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Waabi-Volvo autonomous VNL truck.
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 13, 2026

Volvo, Waabi Start Commercial Autonomous Operations in Texas

Volvo VNL Autonomous trucks, powered by the Waabi Driver, are hauling freight directly to third-party facilities for a customer in Texas.

Read More →