Carrier Survey Says Expectations Still Strong

The recent Second Quarter Business Expectations Survey completed by Transport Capital Partners found more than 80 percent of the carriers responding were expecting volume increases within the next 12 months.

"The prior survey was at a 90 percent level, but the weakness reported in several areas of the economy had its impact" said Richard Mikes, TCP Partner and survey founder.

"TCP expects the second half of 2011 to likely show potentially more positive signs," said Lana Batts, TCP Partner. Larger carriers (over $25 million in revenue) are more optimistic at 88 percent expecting business volume increases, compared to 71 percent of smaller carriers.

For the second consecutive quarter, 90 percent of carriers expect rate increases in the year ahead. "Even if the economy slows from previous predictions, rate increases will likely continue given the conservative hesitancy of carriers to add little equipment beyond replacement levels," Mikes said. Larger carriers are somewhat more optimistic, 93 percent, compared to 81 percent for smaller carriers.

This is the first time that no one expected rates to decrease since the question was first asked in the first quarter of 2009. The general supply and demand equilibrium continues to shift towards carriers as little capacity increase is evident and modest GDP gains are still forecast, which should lead to tightness over the next couple of years. Spot rate markets are showing some diversity over the last quarter depending upon region and type of carrier and some weather impacts being reported. The second half is expected to reflect higher rates as the general economy is forecast to improve.

Batts and Mikes note that truck supply conditions forecast in an earlier TCP white paper are generally still on target favoring carriers.