The amount of economic damage from the SARS virus cannot yet be fully measured because World Health Organization reports suggest that there are likely some contagious people not yet quarantined in several regions in China.
Other affected countries do not have recent new cases resulting from contact with unidentified, unquarantined people in the country. The virus -- and the extraordinary measures to contain it -- have already caused a measurable drop in economic activity in Canada and Asia.
But not in the U.S., says Jim Haughey, senior economist for Newport Communications.
"There has been no impact on freight volume or truck equipment purchases," Haughey said. "A small amount of extra spending to contain the virus offsets sales losses in travel to and from Asia. And the electronics, apparel and household goods industries have incurred added costs managing supplies from Asia."
The full year decline in GDP is likely about 0.1-0.2% in Canada, mostly now past and mostly in Ontario, with minimal impact on cross-border freight. "The decline is probably double in Singapore and Taiwan, double again in Hong Kong and even larger in China, the only country where it is likely to continue into the third quarter," Haughey said.
The situation in China means that SARS remains the major threat to worldwide economic growth later this year. Longer term, China may be a less attractive country for outsourced manufacturing. That could provide a small boost to U.S manufacturing.
Other affected countries do not have recent new cases resulting from contact with unidentified, unquarantined people in the country. The virus -- and the extraordinary measures to contain it -- have already caused a measurable drop in economic activity in Canada and Asia.
But not in the U.S., says Jim Haughey, senior economist for Newport Communications.
"There has been no impact on freight volume or truck equipment purchases," Haughey said. "A small amount of extra spending to contain the virus offsets sales losses in travel to and from Asia. And the electronics, apparel and household goods industries have incurred added costs managing supplies from Asia."
The full year decline in GDP is likely about 0.1-0.2% in Canada, mostly now past and mostly in Ontario, with minimal impact on cross-border freight. "The decline is probably double in Singapore and Taiwan, double again in Hong Kong and even larger in China, the only country where it is likely to continue into the third quarter," Haughey said.
The situation in China means that SARS remains the major threat to worldwide economic growth later this year. Longer term, China may be a less attractive country for outsourced manufacturing. That could provide a small boost to U.S manufacturing.
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