A measure of the country's overall economic health was unchanged in October, according to figures released on Thursday.
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat during the month. This followed a revised 0.4% decline in September, the fourth consecutive monthly drop.
"The index is likely to turn up in November because two of the four negative items in October -- consumer confidence and the stock market index -- have already rebounded," said Newport Communications Senior Economist Jim Haughey.
He said the report shows an economy that is inching ahead slowly, but without conviction that recovery will continue. It also captures the clear turnabout from decline in September to renewed growth in October.
Haughey says the index has to be used with caution to assess economic conditions for motor freight and truck equipment.
"At this early stage of the recovery cycle, goods outperform services, so freight expands faster than the economy," he said. "However, capital spending lags the rest of the economy, so equipment purchases can be stagnant long after the economy begins growing."
There is also a concern that the index may have a downward bias, Haughey said. That's because it is calibrated to data from an earlier era when foreign trade was less important, banks dominated business lending, few people had home equity loans and employment tracked more closely to production because labor productivity was lower.
The private research group also reported their coincident index, which measures current economic conditions, was unchanged in October but is up 0.65 in the last six months. The lagging index, which measures where the economy has been, was unchanged.
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat during the month. This followed a revised 0.4% decline in September, the fourth consecutive monthly drop.
"The index is likely to turn up in November because two of the four negative items in October -- consumer confidence and the stock market index -- have already rebounded," said Newport Communications Senior Economist Jim Haughey.
He said the report shows an economy that is inching ahead slowly, but without conviction that recovery will continue. It also captures the clear turnabout from decline in September to renewed growth in October.
Haughey says the index has to be used with caution to assess economic conditions for motor freight and truck equipment.
"At this early stage of the recovery cycle, goods outperform services, so freight expands faster than the economy," he said. "However, capital spending lags the rest of the economy, so equipment purchases can be stagnant long after the economy begins growing."
There is also a concern that the index may have a downward bias, Haughey said. That's because it is calibrated to data from an earlier era when foreign trade was less important, banks dominated business lending, few people had home equity loans and employment tracked more closely to production because labor productivity was lower.
The private research group also reported their coincident index, which measures current economic conditions, was unchanged in October but is up 0.65 in the last six months. The lagging index, which measures where the economy has been, was unchanged.
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