The latest economic news still paints an uncertain picture of the nation’s economy, but Congress is getting ready to move ahead with a plan to pump things up.
Monday the Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.3% in August, following a revised 0.4% increase in July. The information, which is used to gauge where the economy may be headed up to six months ahead, was collected before the Sept. 11 attack on America.
Newport Communications Senior Economist Jim Haughey says numbers show an economy that has been stalled for eight months.
The coincident index was unchanged in August at 116.6 but has gained only 0.4 percentage point since January. The leading index fell in August to 109.6 from 109.9 in July after small gains for three months, which Haughey says suggests a possible small drop in spending in the fall. However, the lagging index fell to 104.5 from 104.8 in July and 107.5 in January, which he says suggests continued very modest growth in the economy.
According to Haughey, “The difference between the amount of spending that results in the very slow growth anticipated on Sept. 10, and the recession level of spending anticipated since Sept. 11 is very small.”
“At less than 1% it is too small to measure accurately," he says. "We may well have six to nine months ahead of arguing of whether we are or are not in a recession, with the balance of opinion changing with each new data release and revision.”
As for freight volume, Haughey says there should be no immediate impact. However, he notes, since some improvement had been expected in August, it dims the outlook marginally.
Yesterday’s economic report comes as Congress is starting to work on an economic stimulus package of tax cuts and other measures that could amount to $100 billion.
The Wall Street Journal reports lawmakers have sworn to make the package an bipartisan effort that wold include Republican-favored business-tax breaks and Democratic-favored unemployment benefits, payroll tax credits and possibly a hike in the minimum wage. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned against going overboard, saying such a measure could spike economic activity, sending interest rates higher.
Monday the Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.3% in August, following a revised 0.4% increase in July. The information, which is used to gauge where the economy may be headed up to six months ahead, was collected before the Sept. 11 attack on America.
Newport Communications Senior Economist Jim Haughey says numbers show an economy that has been stalled for eight months.
The coincident index was unchanged in August at 116.6 but has gained only 0.4 percentage point since January. The leading index fell in August to 109.6 from 109.9 in July after small gains for three months, which Haughey says suggests a possible small drop in spending in the fall. However, the lagging index fell to 104.5 from 104.8 in July and 107.5 in January, which he says suggests continued very modest growth in the economy.
According to Haughey, “The difference between the amount of spending that results in the very slow growth anticipated on Sept. 10, and the recession level of spending anticipated since Sept. 11 is very small.”
“At less than 1% it is too small to measure accurately," he says. "We may well have six to nine months ahead of arguing of whether we are or are not in a recession, with the balance of opinion changing with each new data release and revision.”
As for freight volume, Haughey says there should be no immediate impact. However, he notes, since some improvement had been expected in August, it dims the outlook marginally.
Yesterday’s economic report comes as Congress is starting to work on an economic stimulus package of tax cuts and other measures that could amount to $100 billion.
The Wall Street Journal reports lawmakers have sworn to make the package an bipartisan effort that wold include Republican-favored business-tax breaks and Democratic-favored unemployment benefits, payroll tax credits and possibly a hike in the minimum wage. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned against going overboard, saying such a measure could spike economic activity, sending interest rates higher.
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