Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Analysis: Don't Mind the Bumps, Numbers Still Look Promising for 2017

It seems just as soon as one report comes out saying there are indications the economy (and trucking) continues to get better, another follows that seems to point the other way, says business contributing editor Evan Lockridge in his July column.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
July 1, 2017
Analysis: Don't Mind the Bumps, Numbers Still Look Promising for 2017

The Cass Freight Index showed positive numbers in April for the fourth straight month, indicating a possible end to the “freight recession.” Source: Cass Information Systems

3 min to read


The Cass Freight Index showed positive numbers in April for the fourth straight month, indicating a possible end to the “freight recession.”Source: Cass Information Systems

It seems just as soon as one report comes out saying there are indications the economy (and trucking) continues to get better, another follows that seems to point the other way.

Ad Loading...

The Cass Freight Index, which measures overall freight volumes and expenditures, showed both measures were positive in April for the fourth straight month. The writer of the report, Donald Broughton of the economic and equity research firm Broughton Capital, pointed out the “data is suggesting that the consumer is finally starting to spend a little.” The numbers, he said, indicated the “overall freight recession” that began in 2015 appears to be over, while freight seems to be gaining momentum in most segments and the overall economy “continues to get slightly better.”

But not everyone in trucking is feeling the positive effects equally.

Ad Loading...

For instance, consumers aren’t spending at brick and mortar retailers. Just look at how many have closed this year or have reported lower sales. While parcel volumes associated with e-commerce continue to show outstanding rates of growth, according to Broughton, with both FedEx and UPS reporting strong U.S. domestic volumes, truckload volume isn’t showing such growth.

Fewer truckload shipments are going to retailers and more is coming from distribution centers. Broughton noted figures from February, the most recent month available, show dry van loads fell on a year-over-year basis five out of the last eight months.

Then there’s the American Trucking Associations For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, which in April fell from the month before for the third straight month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment fell 7.8% in April from March.

One likely reason, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello pointed out, is that “housing starts fell substantially in April…and residential construction generates heavier truck freight.”

There are signs that these are temporary glitches.

Ad Loading...

Truckload linehaul rates may finally be ready to turn around for the better following recent declines. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index in April, while virtually unchanged from the month before, increased from April 2016, hitting its highest level since January and ending 13 straight months of year-over-year drops.

Add to this spot truckload rates, as measured by the DAT North American Freight Index, while down 2.5% in April from March, were above levels from the same month the previous two years. Freight volume was up 60% when compared to April 2016.

This bump in the spot market, according to Broughton, could lead to contract pricing rates being back in positive territory by the end of the year. His truckload linehaul pricing forecast for 2017 remains in a range of between a 1% decline to a 2% improvement.

As for housing starts, just call the April decline a pause. For the lion’s share of the market, single-family home starts, the outlook remains strong, especially with low unemployment in the U.S.

While this mixture of reports can be confusing, there is little expectation that the economy or trucking will hit a wall anytime soon. The ride, like any on the open highway, will continue to face both bumps and smooth spots.

Ad Loading...

Evan Lockridge covers trucking business and economic news for HDT, both in his monthly column in HDT's Hotline section and on Truckinginfo.com. A freelance writer, he has been covering the trucking industry in print, online, and on the air since 1991.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

More Fleet Management

Cyberstop column illustration showing multi factor authorization
Fleet Management•September 29, 2026

How MFA Helps Protect Trucking Fleets

Multi-factor authentication adds protection when passwords are stolen. Here’s how it works and where fleets should start.

Read More →
Three generic semi-trucks break through a fractured wall against a dark blue digital background, symbolizing trucking technology overcoming data silos.
Fleet Management•September 28, 2026

How Better Freight Data Helps Trucking Teams Get Ahead of Disruption

Trucking and logistics teams have plenty of data. The problem is getting the right information in front of the right people soon enough to act. Better-connected data can help teams spot trouble earlier and make smarter decisions before small problems become big ones.

Read More →
Photo of man in collared buttoned shirt speaking on stage in front of a backdrop that says Trimble
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•September 28, 2026

Trimble: Taking Artificial Intelligence in Trucking Beyond Faster Tasks

At Insight 2026, Trimble executives argued that fleets may need to redesign workflows to get more from AI as it introduced new products and enhancements. AI’s value will depend on how fleets combine automation with their people's knowledge.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration showing ladders against a blue background with Heavy Duty Trucking Emerging Leaders logo and the words "2026 nominations now open"
Fleet Management•by Staff•September 21, 2026

Nominations Open for HDT Emerging Leaders

Heavy Duty Trucking is looking for accomplished trucking fleet professionals under 40 who are making an impact and helping lead the industry forward.

Read More →
Illustration of Penske day cab backed into loading dock with graphic of generic charts and graphs and a penske logo.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•September 17, 2026

Why Private Fleets Are Taking More Freight

Private fleets are putting their own trucks on demanding customers and high-cost lanes as companies seek greater control over service, costs, and capacity.

Read More →
A woman holding a tablet with a screen showing rectangles of various colors
Sponsored•September 16, 2026

Color Match Smarter: Tools That Restore & Perform

For fleet managers and collision repair professionals keeping heavy-duty trucks on the road, getting the color right the first time isn't just about appearance — it's about efficiency, turnaround time, and bottom-line results. Discover how today's digital color tools are transforming the repair process from guesswork to precision.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo
Fleet Management•by Staff•September 15, 2026

FMCSA Pauses Biennial-Update Enforcement Amid Motus Transition

Carriers whose updates were due on or after June 1 have more time, while FMCSA works to stabilize its new registration system and warns of phishing sites impersonating its new carrier registration system, Motus.

Read More →
Geotab Whitepaper Cargo Theft Cover
Sponsored•September 14, 2026

2026 Blueprint for Countering Smarter Supply Chain Theft

Cargo theft is no longer just the cost of doing business. It's a multi-billion-dollar criminal enterprise exploiting vulnerabilities across your fleet, drivers, and supply chain.

Read More →
Graphic with U.S. and Canadian flags over background illustration of an ink-stamp that says Tariffs.
Equipment•by Deborah Lockridge•August 24, 2026

What the U.S.-Canada Trade War Means for Trucking

Escalating U.S.-Canada tariffs could disrupt cross-border freight, reduce truck volumes, raise costs, and create new uncertainty for carriers on both sides of the border.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•August 24, 2026

What Are Trucking’s Top Concerns for 2026?

The American Transportation Research Institute wants to know what's worrying trucking fleet managers, drivers, and other stakeholders in its annual Industry Issues survey.

Read More →