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Car Rental Majors: the 2011 Crystal Ball

March 2, 2011

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I love public companies for the fact that they're beholden to their shareholders on a quarterly basis. This allows geeks like me to dig into the conference calls and pull out tidbits of information to serve up to you folks. This is each company putting their best foot forward, so take it for what it is.     

I didn't regurgitate everything here, and this is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of how each company is doing financially, but a look at what's new, what's working and what we might expect in the near future. 

The Merger

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Not much can be announced at this point. Both Dollar Thrifty and Avis Budget expect to have greater clarity around the FTC's official position "in the near future."  Based on statutory requirements dictated by the FTC and when both companies individually submitted their "certifications of substantial compliance" with the FTC's Second Request, the companies expect feedback at the end of March and the first week in April. 

Dollar Thrifty made it clear that there is no written or verbal agreement with Avis Budget at this time. If the companies sign a definitive agreement within the 12-month period from the announcement of the original Hertz deal, then a termination fee would be due Hertz. On its call Cliff Buster from Dollar Thrifty said he believes the deal "runs off October 1." 

Cancellation Fees / Prepaid Rentals

Avis Budget went public recently to say the company is shifting its efforts from instituting a no-show fee to enhancing its prepaid rentals model. Budget launched a prepaid option on its Web site in late 2009, followed by Avis in November of last year. Avis booked more than 20,000 prepaid reservations in January, its first full month of deployment, the company said. In March the company will begin offering prepay rates in its voice channel, one notoriously plagued by no shows. 

Avis Budget says prepay revenue will "increase significantly in 2011," while its "no-show experience has improved remarkably" and the company is "realizing the cost savings in utilization..." 

Hertz has had in place a prepaid product for a year and a half and has apparently generated $100 million in gross revenues for the company. Mark Frissora called it "one of the important elements of our growth strategy." 

Prepaid is more than 60 percent of Hertz's European revenues, and that includes direct consumer bookings as well as online agents and brokers. The model will be rolled out in 20 new countries during this quarter. 

Dollar Thrifty is content to stay on the sidelines right now. "We are clearly the smallest of the big four players in the industry, and we certainly will follow the industry," said Scott Thompson. "But I think some of the other larger players have to lead on that particular issue." 

Franchising?

Hertz says it has relatively low market share with its remaining franchises, though franchising represents $100 million in Hertz's yearly revenue right now. Frissora wouldn't predict upside on revenues "until we really get more intelligence around that and continue to experiment with that concept." 

Dollar Thrifty sees its franchise revenue growing by double digits in 2011 as it works to expand franchise opportunities overseas. However, franchises don't represent instant revenue, as they take a while to implement and gain traction.

Scott Thompson said having the credit markets open up will have a positive effect on entrepreneurs getting financing for a franchise operation, which is preferable to the company itself providing its own capital to franchise startups. 

Where the Growth Is

Hertz is not slowing down with Advantage. The discount brand gained 21 locations in 2010 for a total of 46 locations and 14 affiliates worldwide. Revenue increased by $90 million.

Off airport, Hertz opened 230 incremental locations in 2010, bringing its year-end total to 1,928. Revenues grew 13 percent. 

Dollar Thrifty says it sees its biggest long-term growth opportunity internationally.

Avis Budget contends it is "under-penetrated" in international inbound sales and is investing marketing efforts in Europe and then Latin America and Asia. 

Avis Budget is experimenting with co-branded locations off airport, which realizes the benefits of lower costs for the shared infrastructure and better location sightings for the brand that moved. Some locations with the space also have truck rental. 

Avis Budget committed considerable resources in 2010 to reaching renters in the small business segment and grew its small business volume by 9 percent last year. The margins are high, with further upside in 2011.

Avis Budget is not necessarily ready to jump into car sharing, but is looking at using car sharing technology in the off-airport market. The goal is to remove the sales agent and the storefront. The company says it has a large commercial customer piloting this technology on one of its corporate campuses, with several others planned for this year. 

Savings Initiatives 

Avis Budget has been gaining efficiencies with shuttle trips by better estimating demand per shuttle, reducing shuttle idle time, standardizing shuttle routes and using GPS to track shuttle crews. 

In the area of preventive maintenance, Avis Budget now compares the efficiency of in-house technicians to third-party vendors, which led the company to revamp its approval process for outsourced maintenance work and pruning its vendor ranks. 

Avis Budget introduced portable XM radio last year, though its big ancillary revenue items are still GPS, upsells and insurance. 

The Wholesale Market

Hertz is committed to buying more used cars this year-20,000 to 25,000-to be used off airport and to stock Advantage. Hertz is also looking to up the percentage of its risk fleet to 80 percent, from 65 percent in 2010. 

That will allow the company to further diversify its resale channels from auction and into dealer direct and direct to consumer through Rent2Buy. These "offshore" channels will represent 65 percent of the company's sales in 2011, up from 42 percent in 2010. 

Hertz's depreciation per vehicle for next year is expected to be $294 per unit per month.

Thompson said that while used cars are a (small) part of Dollar Thrifty's strategy, "It's difficult to implement that strategy in a big way when the used car market is in the best used car market in the history of used car industry," he said. That could change if the market softens. 

Dollar Thrifty is working on capturing the $2,000 to $3,000 price differential between the wholesale and retail used car markets, though that does not mean pressing forward into the retail space. Dollar Thrifty is running 95 percent risk. Its fleet depreciation per unit in the fourth quarter 2010 totaled $308 per month. 

At Avis Budget, online dealer auctions and direct dealer sales now account for more than 30 percent of its dispositions. The company said it will be expanding its retail sales program through a national car chain. 

Avis Budget is disposing of cars on average at 12 to 14 months, Dollar Thrifty 18 to 20 months. 

One Offs

Scott Thompson said the company is not in the market to acquire any smaller, independent rental car companies, neither on the premium or value brand side. 

Thompson also does not see a price war emerging with Advantage or other value brands such as Fox. "When I look at the numbers from Advantage, they have been relatively disciplined in their pricing in the Spartan brand," he said. "So I don't see any signs of some unhealthy price war down there as I currently look at the numbers." 

Avis Budget will be "reinforcing and reinvigorating" its multi-brand strategy it adopted when the companies merged in 2002. 

In regards to the threat of higher fuel prices, Frissora says Hertz has seen a very small impact on rentals and does not think it will affect rentals much moving forward. 

Frissora was asked if the seismic shift shaking up the world of online travel agencies, GDSs and the airlines presented an opportunity for car rental to reduce distribution costs. Frissora said the company's relationships with its OTAs and airline partners are "really good." But he said that Hertz is working on gaining revenues directly through hertz.com by enhancing functionality on the Web site to attract new customers, as well as working with airline partners such as JetBlue and Delta to get the rental reservation further "upstream" in the airline booking process.

Comments

  1. 1. Arnold Goehring [ March 06, 2011 @ 05:28PM ]

    Chris: I like your Readers' Digest version of the RAC's financial reports. It saves us a lot of time. Keep it up! - Arnold

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Author Bio

Chris Brown

Executive Editor

Chris is the executive editor of Business Fleet Magazine and Auto Rental News. He covers all aspects of the fleet world.

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